The NFL playoff picture is slowly coming into clearer focus. The next two weeks will go a long way toward deciding which teams will get in and which teams will plan an early vacation. For this article, we've isolated the Detroit vs. Dallas game on Saturday and the Miami vs. Baltimore game on Sunday as our points of emphasis.
The 2023 NFL regular season is winding down, but there's still plenty of time to make some cash! Check out our best player prop bets for Week 17 right here! Good luck with all of your wagers this week.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 3.5 Receptions (-114) (FanDuel)
Gibbs has put together a solid rookie season for the Lions, even though he's split the snaps about 50/50 with veteran RB David Montgomery. One thing I loved about Gibbs at Alabama was his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, so I don't mind wagering on him in that capacity on Saturday night against Dallas.
Gibbs's median number of receptions for 2023 is 4, which gives us a fair amount of value on the Over at this modest amount of juice. The young speedster's median number of targets for the season is 5, and he's gone over this total in 7 of his 13 ball games.
Current form also favors an Over in this spot, as Gibbs has caught 4 or more passes in 6 out of his last 10 outings. Look for Lions OC Ben Johnson to call plenty of screen passes to Gibbs in order to try and slow down Cowboys DE Micah Parsons. Let's bang the Over!
Tony Pollard UNDER 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) (PointsBet)
I like Tony Pollard, but he's had kind of a disappointing season thus far. The injuries to the Cowboys offensive line haven't helped matters either. All World OT Tyron Smith is listed as questionable to play for this game as well.
I don't expect Pollard to do much on the ground in this game. The Lions have a stout rush defense, as they rank an impressive 4th in yards per rush allowed (3.7) this season. Guys like Isaiah Buggs and Benito Jones do a great job of clogging the middle, so Pollard's talents may be limited to the passing game in this one.
In 2023, Pollard's median number of rushing attempts is 13. He's stayed under this current total in 9 of his 15 ball games this season. Let's play the Under!
Zay Flowers OVER 4.5 Receptions (-125) (FanDuel)
We cashed with Flowers on Christmas and don't see any reason to get off the train just yet. The former Boston College standout has established himself as Lamar Jackson's favorite target. His number of targets has steadily increased since TE Mark Andrews got hurt earlier in the year.
Flowers has grabbed 5 or more receptions in 9 of 15 games in 2023. His median target number of 7 is also encouraging for Over bettors in this spot. Current form also favors an Over, as Flowers has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 outings.
Miami has a good secondary and a lot of folks will be worried about All-World corner Jalen Ramsey. However, I'm not concerned. Ramsey always lines up at the right corner, while Flowers typically plays most of his snaps out of the slot. Let's ride the Over!
Lamar Jackson OVER 20.5 Completions (-102) (FanDuel)
How about stacking Lamar Jackson with Zay Flowers for an even bigger payday? It sounds like a great idea to me! Jackson's median completions number is 21 this season, which shows a bit of value on the Over at this current number.
As good as the Dolphins defense has been, Miami still ranks just 16th in opponent completion percentage (65.16%). That tells me that Mr. Jackson shouldn't have any trouble finding open receivers in this one. Miami also stops the run incredibly well, so if Baltimore wants to do some damage it'll have to be through the air.
Jackson has completed 21 or more passes in 8 of 15 games this season. He's also gone Over this total in 2 of his last 3 games. The Over is the play here, folks!
