Week 14 of the NFL regular season has several intriguing matchups. A couple that caught our eye are the Buffalo at Kansas City and the Philadelphia at Dallas games. Both of those will go a long way toward the playoff picture in both the AFC and the NFC.
After a 3-0 sweep on Monday Night Football, we're now 12-2 over our last 14 NFL prop selections. Let's stay hot with our bets for the Week 14 Sunday slate. Good luck this weekend, fellow sports investors.
Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing TD (-144) (FanDuel)
Our numbers say that this should be around (-160), so we don't mind taking an early shot over at FanDuel. We cashed with this same play on Allen a couple of weeks ago and see no reason to stray from it this week. The Bills should be highly motivated since they're off a bye and playing for their playoff lives.
Allen has fared quite well in his career against Kansas City. He's thrown for 2 or more touchdowns in all 3 of his starts against the Chiefs and we're expecting a big game from him. The game should be fairly high scoring, since the oddsmakers have made the total 47.5.
As far as the metrics are concerned, Allen has gone over this number of TD passes in 8 of his 12 ball games this year. The former Wyoming Cowboy also went Over in 11 of his 16 games in 2022. He's also gone over this total in 7 of his last 9, so current form is on our side as well.
Another interesting stat in our favor is red zone offense / defense. The Chiefs defense has been impressive this season, but they rank just 21st in red zone defense. The Bills, on the other hand, rank 2nd in red zone offense. Drink the juice and take the Over!
Drake London OVER 3.5 Receptions (-121) (Caesars)
This is probably our favorite prop of Week 14! Mr. London leads the Dirty Birds this season in both receiving yards (573) and receptions (46). The former USC star is definitely the best deep threat on this Atlanta squad, and we look for Desmond Ridder to look his way quite frequently in this game.
For the season, London's median number of receptions is 5. His median number of targets is 7, which is also encouraging for the Over. The 22-year-old also hauled in 6 receptions against Tampa Bay back in Week 7.
Speaking of Tampa Bay, they don't exactly have an elite secondary. The Bucs rank just 18th in opponent completion percentage (65.37%) and 27th in yards per pass allowed (7.1). Carlton Davis III is a good corner, but he'll have his hands full defending the 6-foot-3 London on Sunday. Take the Over!
Isaiah Likely UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-115) (DraftKings)
Ahhh, YES! It feels good to get back to our roots and play an Under around these parts! Likely caught 4 passes against the Chargers in Week 12, but we don't see him doing that in back-to-back ball games. He's gone under this receptions total in 10 of 12 games in 2023.
That tells us that Likely is more "likely" (see what we did there) to stay under this receptions total. Sure, he'll get more targets with stud TE Mark Andrews on injured reserve, but this line is just an overreaction to one solid game against a bad defense like the Chargers.
The Rams actually defend the pass quite well, as they rank a respectable 6th in opponent completion percentage (60.77%). Also, the Ravens are a 7-point favorite in this contest. If they build a big lead, they'll be more likely to just run the ball and get out of Week 14 with a W. Let's ride the Under!
