We posted an encouraging 5-1 record across multiple days of baseball props last week. It's always nice to be seeing the board clearly.
Now that most teams have hit the 120-game mark and around six weeks remain in the regular season, we will attempt to roll into the playoffs on a heater and have another best bet batch ready for Wednesday’s afternoon and evening schedule.
Ke’Bryan Hayes OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Hayes is experiencing his best month of the season in August and has hit safely in seven of eight for the scuffling Pirates. Five of those performances have included multiple hits, and he’s compiled three homers, two doubles, and a triple while boosting his season long SLG over 40 points since just August 7.
His .927 OPS in the month has been a bright spot in Pittsburgh, and the infielder has already racked up four hits and two walks in 11 plate appearances during the current series against New York.
For the Mets, the big Tylor Megill has allowed men to reach base at nearly two per inning over his last ten starts. He’s surrendered an ERA of 6.65 while allowing 90 baserunners in his previous 46 innings on the hill. Hayes is 5-for-7 lifetime against the Mets’ righty, and we like him to add to that total on Wednesday.
Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Speaking of players that have owned their matchups with a particular pitcher, Marte fits that bill when facing Colorado’s Austin Gomber. The former All-Star is 6-for-13 with two doubles and two home runs against Gomber over the last few seasons.
Marte has been oddly ineffective for the Diamondbacks at Coors Field this season, one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks. He went 1-for-10 with a .567 OPS in their late-April road trip to Denver but has a lifetime OPS of .884 on Blake Street.
We admit the next part is a slight reach, but Marte has been a much better hitter over his career during day games. His OPS is 80 points higher compared to playing under the lights, and that trend has held for 2023 as well.
Finally, Gomber has pitched much better on the road for the Rockies in 2023. Opposing hitters have posted a 150 sOPS+ (split OPS where 100 is an average hitter based on the particular split) with a .909 OPS and 36 extra-base hits against him at Coors Field.
This is compared to a 105 sOPS+, .766 OPS, and 20 XBH when Gomber has pitched away from home. We expect Marte to extend those splits against Gomber today.
Whit Merrifield OVER 1.5 Total Bases
Merrifield is tied for second in the majors with 32 hits over his last 20 games, a stretch that includes five homers and four doubles with a .922 OPS.
He’s faced Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola sparingly in the past, going 2-for-5 with a double, and should take advantage of what’s been a down year for the Phillies’ ace. Nola has not accrued a season-long WAR this low (1.3) since 2016, his second year at the big-league level.
He’s given up 25 runs across 42.2 innings since July and is also striking out fewer than 10 batters per nine innings for the first time since 2018. Merrifield should find his way on base tonight, possibly for extra bases.
