Our Monday props last week finished 0-2 with a push on Spencer Steer’s total bases when the struggling first baseman didn’t suit up.
We are undeterred by an off night and look forward to returning to the win column with a couple of midweek opportunities today and tomorrow.
Our player prop best bets for Wednesday’s full slate of baseball games are coming up next.
Peter Lambert UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts
Lambert has gone an average of nearly two and a half innings per appearance in 2023 and has been inconsistent to the point where it’s confusing to see the amount of juice on the flip side of this line.
He’s been more effective than in past years at striking out hitters (8.9 K/9), reducing his number of pitches per inning (17.1), and keeping runners off the basepaths (1.53 WHIP).
That said, all of those numbers add up to Peter Lambert being a replacement-level pitcher who has been an opener for the Rockies in many of his 16 appearances this season. He’s eclipsed this strikeout total in eight of 16 appearances, which points to value on the under at plus money.
In his last appearance, a season-high five innings where he scattered three hits and a walk, Lambert struck out just three hitters. We’ll play him to go under this afternoon in DC for an early sprinkle.
Joe Ryan OVER 6.5 Strikeouts
Ryan is a vital piece of an impressive Twins pitching staff that leads baseball in WHIP, K/9, and FIP while ranking top-three in ERA, ERA+, and K:BB ratio. He’s striking out 10.7 hitters per nine innings while averaging 93.7 pitches per start, both career-best marks.
Ryan’s struggled of late overall, giving up 14 earned runs in 21.2 innings in four July starts, but hasn’t lost his ability to catch hitters off guard with two strikes. He’s struck out 36 batters for a 14.95 K/9 mark in the month and has had no fewer than seven in all four starts.
Finally, Ryan has struck out opposing players at a 15% higher rate per nine innings in ten starts at home compared to the same number on the road.
The Mariners are second in baseball in both strikeouts and strikeout rate, giving Ryan a chance to attack this group of punchout candidates for the first time in 2023. We’ll be on his over at Target Field.
James Outman OVER 0.5 Total Bases
The rookie outfielder has experienced the ups and downs of a Major League season in the form of some high peaks and low valleys. Outman is wrapping up his second month this year with an OPS above .930 and after a tough stretch in May and June, when he posted a .552 OPS.
A matchup with the lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has been a feast-or-famine player himself, doesn’t scare us off playing the left-handed hitter’s over in total bases.
Outman’s OPS only drops off 26 points from righties to lefties, and he’s got a significantly higher batting average and OBP when facing southpaws. We’re taking Outman to reach base safely against Kikuchi and the Blue Jays today.
