We're feeling good after winning our Power Play last night! Max Scherzer mowed down 11 Angels hitters to easily cash our Over ticket on him. Our Under play on Braxton Garrett was also a no-sweat winner!
Let's keep it rolling with 2 MLB Player Props for Tuesday, August 15. Thanks for reading and best of luck with all of your action tonight on the diamond.
I've talked before about how oddsmakers typically use the median to set strikeout props. While that's obviously not a bad strategy, I don't think that they sometimes make enough adjustments for other factors. That's what's happening here with Bailey Ober.
Ober, a lanky righty with a live arm, just struck out 9 Detroit hitters last week on August 9th. He also racked up 8 strikeouts against the Tigers back on June 25th. Now you can see why I think this number of 6 is a shade too low from PrizePicks.
The 6-foot 9, 260-pounder doesn't have an eye-popping K-rate (24.3%), but that's probably why this line is at 6 instead of 7. Ober's extra height makes his fastball get on hitters much more quickly than a pitcher of average height. Take the Over!
I made this line 3.5, so I think we're getting a deal here with 4.5. Yes, I know that Ashcraft has been on a pretty good roll lately, but this Guardians team has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors.
Cleveland has 5 hitters with a K-rate of less than 20%. They'll also have Jose Ramirez and his ultra-low K-rate of 10.2% back in the lineup tonight. Ashcraft may shock us and get to 5 Ks, but I seriously doubt it.
Ashcraft's strikeout rate of 16.9% only puts him in the 11th percentile in MLB. His Whiff Rate is a little better (21st percentile) but still not enough to make me nervous. Let's ride the Under!