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2 Primetime CFB Best Bets for Saturday, September 16

Bill Christy
Written by Bill Christy
September 14, 2023
2 Primetime CFB Best Bets for Saturday, September 16

It may be early in the college football season, but we've got a couple of rivalry games on Saturday, September 16. Tennessee heads to the Swamp to take on Florida and West Virginia hosts Pitt in another fierce matchup that has no love lost.

Check out our 2 Primetime bets right here. Best of luck with all of your weekend action. Thanks for reading!

Best Bet: Florida +6.5 over Tennessee

Tennessee is 2-0 early on the season with wins over Virginia and Austin Peay. In both games, they allowed just 13 points. They did struggle in the 1st half against Austin Peay when they led just 13-6. They did pull away in the 2nd half, but it was concerning to see them stumble a bit early.

Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small combined for over 200 yards on the ground on just 26 carries. Joe Milton III tossed 2 touchdowns and accumulated over 225 yards through the air. They were able to disrupt the passing game of Austin Peay by getting to the QB 7 times and forcing 2 turnovers.

The Gators were manhandled by Utah in their opener and lost 24-11 but were able to shake that off and handle business against McNeese State last week. They picked up a 49-7 win that should have been a shutout before a late score from McNeese St.

The Gators held them to just 20% on 3rd down and just 112 total yards. Graham Mertz was solid and completed over 82% of his passes while Montrell Johnson Jr took 15 carries for 119 yards and 2 scores.

This line is a bit fishy to us. Tennessee has looked much better through their 1st two games, yet they are favored by less than a touchdown. The Swamp is a very intimidating place to play, and the Gators have seemed to have the Vols number when at home. We expect their success to continue here and a small sprinkle on the moneyline may be in order.

Key Betting Trends for Vols at Gators:

  • Tenn is 19-46 SU in their last 65 games on the road.
  • Tenn is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Florida.
  • Florida is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the underdog.
  • Florida is 22-4 SU in their last 26 games at home.

Best Bet: West Virginia -1 over Pittsburgh

Pitt is coming off a tough loss at home last week to Cincinnati. They fell behind early 20-7 at the half before falling even further back 27-7 after the 3rd quarter.

Phil Jurkovec tried to bring them back and scored twice in the 4th, but it was not enough as they lost 27-21. They allowed the Bearcats to rush for over 200 yards and could not get the offense clicking as they finished under 270 total yards.

West Virginia were handled by Penn State in their opener 38-15. They then hosted Duquesne the following week and squeaked out a cover winning 56-17. They were almost 50% on 3rd down and went for over 600 total yards.

Defensively, they held Duquesne to just 3 rushing yards. They likely will not be able to dominate the Panthers like that, but it does bode well going forward.

While Pitt is 1-1, their win came against a Wofford team that in inferior to most of the country. West Virginia was given a great test by PSU and while they lost, they learned a lot in the loss. Another piece to factor is that Pitt has #20 UNC at home next week and could be looking ahead a bit. We like the home team here to pull off the win.

Key Betting Trends for Pitt at WVU:

  • Pitt is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Big 12 conference.
  • Pitt is 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games against West Virginia.
  • WVa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast conference.
  • WVa is 9-0 SU in their last 9 games played in week 3.
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