Use our odds tool to find the max payout for Super Bowl LIX for every NFL team.
Last year's NFL campaign blended the dominance of existing franchises already in power within the league with the emergence of several franchises that seem on the verge of breaking out of long-term droughts.
Teams expected to compete for the Super Bowl that went on to win their divisions included Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Dallas, and San Francisco. Philadelphia earned a playoff bid via the Wild Card a year after losing in the Super Bowl to Kansas City.
A pair of teams that surprised the league included Detroit and Houston. The Lions won their first NFC North title in 20 years and posted just the second 12-win season in franchise history, which dates back to 1930. The Texans rode Rookie of the Year performances from CJ Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. on both sides of the ball to capture the AFC South with a 10-7 record. This came immediately after three seasons when the organization won 11 combined games.
Super Bowl LVIII pitted the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of the last eight AFC West titles and four of the previous six AFC crowns, against the San Francisco 49ers, the top challenger from the NFC making their second Super Bowl appearance in five years. KC topped San Fran in a nail-biting overtime victory, ending on a walk-off three-yard touchdown catch by Mecole Hardman after the Chiefs clawed back from an early 10-0 deficit.
This triumph marked Kansas City's third Super Bowl win in a five-year span, and they became the first team to win back-to-back titles since New England in 2004-05. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes was named Super Bowl MVP for the third time, further establishing one of the best quarterback careers the league has ever seen just six seasons into his career as a starter.
Preseason Favorites
Of the last five Super Bowl winners, the LA Rams in 2021 had the longest preseason odds of accomplishing that feat at +1200. The median odds for champions in that time was +1000, while the average was around +900, meaning there haven't been any surprises of late.
The Chiefs and 49ers are the clear favorites to square off again in Super Bowl LIX, with FanDuel listing the teams as equals at +600, while DraftKings gives the Chiefs a slight edge at +500.
Kansas City has spent the offseason signing extensions with key contributors to their success, like defensive tackle Chris Jones and tight end Travis Kelce, and adding to their offensive arsenal via the draft and free agency. KC drafted Texas speedster Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick in April and signed free agent receiver Marquise Brown to a one-year deal, giving Mahomes speed and versatility on the edge many argued he lacked in 2023.
San Francisco has been more conservative in terms of offseason cap allocation, adding two more years to the contract of Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey and bolstering their defensive line by inking Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos to two-year contracts. Entering training camp, the Niners are dealing with holdouts from All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk. It remains to be seen whether either player will return this season, with Aiyuk already requesting to be traded.
Detroit has fully committed to their offensive core, extending Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Penei Sewell to the tune of over $190M in guaranteed money. The Lions also drafted corners with their first two picks and signed DJ Reader and Marcus Davenport to fortify their defensive front. They enter the season as the favorite to repeat as NFC North champs and are +1200 to win the title.
Baltimore has had another offseason of understated moves, bringing in veterans like Derrick Henry and Eddie Jackson on short-term deals and drafting skilled, potentially overlooked players like Nate Wiggins, Adisa Isaac, and Devontez Walker to build around a talented roster. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson could benefit from having a true workhorse running back in his backfield, and the team's long-term signing of Pro Bowler Justin Madubuike ensures he'll be around to anchor their defense for another four years. John Harbaugh's crew is +1000 to lift the Lombardi Trophy in 2024-25.
Which Team Can Break Through the Top Four?
The Bengals, Bills, and Cowboys have had relatively quiet offseasons, too. Cincy tagged receiver Tee Higgins and will see him play out that one-year deal this season. They added depth in the trenches in the draft and via free agency, most notably with defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins joining on a two-year contract.
Buffalo added Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman 33rd overall to offset the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The Bills also re-signed left tackle Dion Dawkins to at least protect Josh Allen while he searches for someone to throw to.
As for Dallas, they have allocated the least money to free agents, re-signings, and draft picks of all NFL teams through the end of July. The most money they've given to any one player is $3M on a one-year deal for linebacker Eric Kendricks, and they drafted left tackle Tyler Guyton from TCU with the 28th overall selection in April.
The Eagles have been busy this summer after settling for a Wild Card berth in 2023, only being outspent by the Lions and the Jaguars. Significant free-agent deals were inked with linebacker Bryce Huff, running back Saquon Barkley, and corner CJ Gardner-Johnson. The Birds also snagged Devin White and Mehki Bechton to low-risk deals that could pan out well if they stay on the field. The front office re-signed their top receivers, two offensive linemen, and their kicker to long-term extensions.
Houston signed over $100M worth of contracts with free-agent defensive players in the last few months while committing to Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and the newly acquired Joe Mixon for 3+ years. The Texans are prohibitive favorites to repeat as AFC South champs in 2024.
In Green Bay, the front office has concentrated on shoring up the defense, bringing in Xavier McKinney on a four-year contract and extending Kenny Clark for three additional seasons. The Packers drafted guard Jordan Morgan in the first round and signed Josh Jacobs to replace Aaron Jones as the leader of their backfield as the team enters Year 2 of the Jordan Love era.
This naturally takes us to a brief highlight of the New York Jets, where Aaron Rodgers is poised to begin another season with the burden of heavy expectations for a franchise in desperate need of a turnaround. The Jets signed tackle Tyron Smith and guard John Simpson to protect Rodgers and expended the 11th overall pick in the 2024 draft on Penn State's Olu Fashanu, who was brought in to protect Rodgers' blind side.
The Dolphins and Falcons complete the teams with odds better than +3000 entering the season. Miami needs to replace key defensive players like Christian Wilkins and Xavien Howard, which they may have done by signing Kendall Fuller and Jordan Poyer and drafting Chop Robinson in the first round. The offense lost guard Robert Hunt in free agency but signed a center and drafted a left tackle in the second round to retain depth along their front.
For Atlanta, the team will hand the reins to Kirk Cousins after signing him to a $180M contract following the failed Desmond Ridder experiment. The Falcons also confusingly drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick despite that huge contract for Cousins. The veteran QB will have free agent acquisition Darnell Mooney to throw to in addition to existing weapons Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts.
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +1500
Recent history indicates that one of the four or five teams ahead of the Eagles in the odds lists will likely be the champ, but the roster constructed by Howie Roseman will be challenging to beat if it stays healthy. Away games against the Ravens and Bengals will be among the most demanding tests on their 2024-25 schedule, but overall, the Birds have the 10th-easiest path to wins based on last season's records.
Philly's defense will need to improve on the 5.5 yards per play they allowed last season, but encouraging building blocks like top-six rankings in pass rush and run stop win rates can contribute to their return to 2022 form when they had the top-ranked unit in the NFL. The Eagles drafted cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the first round and signed Gardner-Johnson from Detroit to support this effort.
Jalen Hurts will benefit from a true, lead running back with Saquon Barkley behind him to draw attention and add versatility to the playsheet for new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are back on fresh deals for the 2024 season after combining for over 185 receptions and 2,500 receiving yards a year ago. To boot (no pun intended), the team re-signed kicker Jake Elliott to a four-year deal after he was named to the Second-Team All-Pro unit in 2023.
While the attention in the NFC is focused on the Niners and Lions, we'll submit a play on the Birds and see how it evolves before the season kicks off in September.
