21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA).
I’d like to start by thanking you, the reader, for being part of an exciting, profitable season in the NFL. Through the conference championship games, our best bet record stands at 42-32 this year, meaning that bettors using the same unit size would be up somewhere in the ballpark of 6.8 units on the season.
That’s a total ROI of more than 9% on the 74 plays we’ve given out, and we hope you cashed in with us.
The collective attention of sports bettors, football fans, and all those in their circles will now turn to Glendale, AZ, on February 12 for Super Bowl 57.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs after a blowout victory against San Francisco. The Chiefs bested the Bengals by a field goal for their first win against Cincy in four tries since last season.
The point total at State Farm Stadium is 49.5, which matches last season’s closing number. The under has cashed in each of the last four Super Bowls.
Although we still have to wait 10+ days to watch these picks play out, we have a couple of best bets for Super Bowl 57 we’d like to take early. Our final best bet column of the NFL season is presented next.
The Andy Reid Bowl pits the Chiefs’ coach against the team he took to four NFC title games and a Super Bowl appearance in 14 seasons at the helm of the Eagles. He is the winningest coach in franchise history with a record of 130-91 in that time.
Reid is famous for his record after a bye week which is relevant as his team heads for their second week off in the last four. Teams coached by Andy Reid are 22-3 in the regular season and 8-3 in the playoffs after a bye. Kansas City originally opened as the favorite in this matchup but is now catching two points after a wave of wagers on the Eagles.
The main concern for Kansas City should be stopping the Philadelphia rushing attack, which ranked third in attempts, fifth in yards, and first in touchdowns this season. If KC is unable to force Jalen Hurts to beat them with his arm, this play will stand little chance.
We like that Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce get an extra week of rest after a gritty win in which they played through injury. We were also encouraged by the Chiefs’ pass rush that forced Joe Burrow into uncomfortable throws throughout the AFC title game.
We expect Kansas City will be prepared to do its part in all three facets of the game, so we'll take the Chiefs and the points in Super Bowl 57. We especially like that WynnBet has this at reduced juice at the time of this writing.
It’s hard to assign value to Super Bowl trends in particular because the teams change every year, and rosters for the teams who make repeat appearances are often different. For Kansas City, they retain several core players from their 2019 and 2020 appearances, and both of those scores went under the point total. Take that for what it’s worth.
Looking back, the Chiefs and Eagles have played once in the time that both Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have been the quarterback for these teams. That game ended in a 42-30 Chiefs victory in Philadelphia. Mahomes threw five touchdowns, three to Tyreek Hill, and Hurts had 387 yards on 48 pass attempts in a losing effort.
Philadelphia allowed 40 points to Dallas in a four-turnover effort on the road in late December. This game is probably the best comparison for the team Philly will see on February 12, and the Eagles outgained the Cowboys with Gardner Minshew at quarterback but turned the ball over four times. Hurts will prevent the turnovers as he’s done all season to minimize the damage against KC.
The Chiefs allowed 50 combined points to Cincinnati in two matchups this season, but their pass rush has taken a significant step forward in the playoffs, where they’ve had seven sacks in two games. Hurts will prove difficult to contain, but we believe the final score will end in the low 20s allowing the under to come home.
If you're looking for the best place to play this Under, look no further than WynnBet Sportsbook. They've currently reduced the juice to only -108.
Update: The total has moved up to 51 at the time of this writing. We obviously like that number even more than the 49.5 we bet it at a few days prior. 51 is definitely a key number, so shop around to find that if you can!
We can't resist putting a few shekels on this one over at FanDuel Sportsbook. Sure, these are 2 elite offenses that can score in bunches. However, we think both head coaches will be a bit conservative with their playcalling early in this game.
Neither team is going to want to make the first big mistake. We look for this game to start out much like a heavyweight boxing match, where both fighters spend some time feeling each other out. Both teams also rank inside the Top 11 in time of possession, so we could see a couple of long drives that both end in punts or field goal attempts.
We prefer laying the -130 juice on this one because 10 is such a key number. That said, we're also okay with the 9.5 at plus money that DraftKings is offering. Let's play the Under and cheer for a boring first quarter!