NL MVP Odds for 2024 MLB Season: Is This Mookie's Year?

The National League may have lost the World Series in the fall, but the league now boasts both MVP winners from 2023 with the addition of Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers. Los Angeles and Atlanta represent the top two organizations in the World Series preseason odds, and fans of NL teams will have to deal with two super teams atop the standings for the foreseeable future.

While those two teams are loaded with talent, neither reached the World Series last year. The emergence of the Diamondbacks late in 2023 was startling and highlights the importance of talent development in the absence of spending big on free agency.

We dig into the MVP results 2023 and preview how the 2024 race could go in this piece, along with our best bets to take home the hardware.

First, let's take a look at the odds from our friends over at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Recapping the 2023 MVP Race

The lack of suspense in the 2023 NL MVP race mirrored the American League, with one player rising to an unmatched level of performance to sweep the first-place votes and capture the award unanimously. Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Atlanta Braves made history by becoming the first player in the Live-Ball Era to steal 70+ bases and mash 40+ home runs. No player had ever reached 30 big flies while stealing 70 bases before, making what Acuña accomplished that much more impressive.

The oft-injured outfielder played 159 games in 2023, setting a new career high and marking the first time he’d exceeded 120 games since the 2019 season. The four-time All-Star slashed .337/.416/.596, leading the big leagues in hits, runs, steals, OBP, and total bases for a Braves team that won an MLB-best 104 games.

Acuña’s 8.2 WAR was 2nd-best in the National League to LA’s Mookie Betts, the MVP runner-up. Betts ripped a career-high 39 home runs, posted a .987 OPS, and was above-average defensively at multiple positions. His 8.3 WAR was a league-high for the third time in his career and trailed only Shohei Ohtani’s 10.0 for the big league lead.

Betts’ teammate, Freddie Freeman, finished third in voting after a 211-hit season in which he tied Todd Helton’s 2000 season numbers with 59 doubles, the most since St. Louis’s Joe Medwick roped 64 two-baggers in 1936. Charlie Gehringer also hit 60 doubles that year for the Tigers.

Finally, Matt Olson, the MLB leader with 54 home runs and 139 RBI, finished fourth in the MVP vote after a breakout year. Olson became the eighth player since 2000 to hit 50+ long balls and drive in 135 or more runs in a season, a list that includes Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa, among others.

NL MVP Favorites in 2024

Three teams dominate the list for National League Most Valuable Player odds entering spring training. The Braves (3), Dodgers (3), and Phillies (2) represent eight of the top ten players with the shortest odds to win Most Valuable Player.

For Atlanta, Acuña is favored to repeat as MVP in 2024. Entering his age-26 season, Acuña is projected by Baseball Reference to regress to more mortal numbers but is still the man to beat.

The Dodgers trio of Betts, Freeman, and the newly-acquired Ohtani are all listed shorter than +1000 at multiple outlets and represent Acuña’s most robust competition on paper. The $700M transaction that brought Ohtani, the two-time and reigning AL MVP, to Los Angeles’ NL team marked a consolidation of power that shook the baseball world.

Those three players will likely be Dave Roberts’ 1-2-3 hitters in a loaded lineup for the World Series favorites. It’s worth noting that the batting lineup is the only place Ohtani will be featured this season due to an elbow injury, which reduces his chances of running away with the award as he did in 2021 and 2023.

Those knocking on the door of the league’s top four players include San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr., Philly’s Bryce Harper, and defending home run champ Matt Olson.

Tatis won his first Gold Glove after returning from injury and a PED suspension but struggled at the plate for the second half of the season. San Diego will deal with the departure of Juan Soto from their batting order, who’s now the second favorite to win AL MVP in 2024.

Harper put together another strong postseason and won the Silver Slugger among National League DHs in 2023. His playing time and durability remain concerns to his candidacy this year after only 546 plate appearances last season. No player in the top nine of the 2023 NL MVP voting had fewer than 600 PAs.

Olson’s power surge in 2023 was notable. He hadn’t cracked 40 home runs in a season before, let alone 50. Olson gets a ton of opportunities because he plays so frequently. Dating back to 2018, he’s played at least 90% of his team’s games in five of six seasons.

His fly-ball rate jumped to a career-best 34.4% while his hard-hit % increased to 55.6%, contributing to a homer rate of 7.5% across 720 plate appearances.

The Next Tier of Contenders

A strong crop of veteran players populate the mid-range on the NL MVP odds sheet with a few up-and-coming stars mixed in. Philadelphia’s Trea Turner nearly tied a career-high in 2023 with 26 dingers and has played more than 95% of games over the last three seasons after injuries derailed his first three big league campaigns. His OPS fell below .800 last year for the first time since 2018 however, and Turner would need a significant uptick there to compete for MVP.

Corbin Carroll of the Arizona Diamondbacks had his breakout year in 2023. The National League’s Rookie of the Year was named to the All-Star team and finished fifth in MVP voting while leading his team to the World Series. Carroll’s ten triples led the NL, and he ranked inside the league’s top ten in WAR, OPS, runs, and steals. If his second year improves on his first, Carroll will at least finish in the top five in voting again.

Austin Riley is another young slugger who has been consistently excellent for Atlanta over the last three seasons. Riley has finished no worse than seventh in MVP voting since 2021. In those three seasons combined, he ranks top-five in the NL in total bases, home runs, doubles, and RBI with an OPS of .878.

Among the experienced contenders beyond the favorites, Pete Alonso, Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, and 2022 MVP Paul Goldschmidt remain within striking distance.

Alonso mashed 46 homers and drove in 118 runs last season, one of the few Mets players to live up to expectations during a tough year. His lack of fielding and baserunning contributions have dented his MVP candidacies in recent years, but if Alonso can reach 50+ home runs while the Mets improve, he should have a shot.

Machado regressed in 2023, posting his lowest WAR since 2014, even when including 2020 in that sample. He and Tatis will lead a Padres team expected to win roughly half their games this season after a letdown last year.

Lindor belted more than 30 big flies last year and posted an OPS above .800 for the first time since 2019, before his tenure as a Met began. Continued improvements to Lindor’s performance could see him finish better than the ninth position he’s held in MVP voting for the last two seasons.

Finally, Goldschmidt began to look like a player in his age-35 season a year after winning the National League MVP in 2022. Like the rest of his Cardinals teammates, Goldy experienced some setbacks last season, posting his lowest OPS since his rookie year in 2011. If St. Louis is going to have a resurgence in 2024, it’ll likely require a top-five MVP finish from their veteran star.

Best Bet: Mookie Betts +600 (DraftKings)

In terms of performance and durability, Betts has been the MLB standard for nearly ten seasons. His lowest OPS since 2015 was .803 in 2017, and Betts won the MVP the following season while slashing .346/.438/.640.

He’s finished top-five in NL MVP voting in three of his four seasons as a Dodger and is the heartbeat of their lineup. A permanent move to the infield in 2024 could boost his candidacy; Betts was on pace for 15 defensive runs saved above average in 70 games as a second baseman in 2023.

Best Bet: Fernando Tatis Jr. +1200 (BetRivers)

Tatis has finished in the top five in the National League in offensive WAR twice and defensive WAR once in his last three seasons. If 2024 is the year where Tatis elevates back into the top five offensively and maintains his 4th-ranked dWAR from a season ago, he could win the MVP despite playing for a mediocre team. Ohtani did it twice in the last three years for the Angels, after all.

Tatis struggled at the plate relative to his 2020-21 seasons after missing all of 2022. With an entire offseason at his disposal, we see Tatis rising to the top of the ballots in 2024 as a strong possibility.

Best Bet: Corbin Carroll +2200 (FanDuel)

Carroll’s prowess at the dish and on the base paths gives him Acuña-like appeal for a much lower price at the window. Arizona is expected to be a Wild Card contender again after their expected beating 2023 season.

Carroll leading the D’Backs to another postseason berth would be a nice tailwind to his MVP case in year two. If Carroll can reach 30 homers and 50 steals this season, he has a great chance to supplant the favorites for the voting majority.

Past Winners of the NL MVP Award

Want to impress your baseball-loving friends with your expansive knowledge? The following table will help with that goal. Here are all of the NL MVP award winners from 2005 to 2022.

NL MVP Award FAQ

Have further questions about the National League Most Valuable Player award? We've compiled the following FAQ section to give you quick answers to some commonly asked questions.

Do you have a question about the NL MVP or any other MLB-related topic? Reach out to us at [email protected] or on Twitter @EatWatchBet

Has a National League player ever won the MVP award in 3 straight years?

Yes, a National League player has won the MVP award for three straight years before. The player who accomplished this feat was Barry Bonds, who won the National League MVP award in 2001, 2002, and 2003 while playing for the San Francisco Giants. Bonds is widely considered one of the greatest baseball players of all time, and his three consecutive MVP awards are just one of the many achievements that make up his impressive career.

Who won the first-ever National League MVP award?

The first ever National League MVP award was won by the baseball player named "Frank McCormick" in 1940. McCormick was a first baseman who played for the Cincinnati Reds from 1934 to 1946. He had an excellent season in 1940, leading the league in hits and finishing second in both batting average and RBIs, which helped him earn the inaugural National League MVP award. The MVP award has since become one of the most prestigious individual honors in baseball, awarded annually to the best player in each league as voted on by members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

What player has won the most National League MVP awards?

The player who has won the most National League MVP awards is Barry Bonds. Bonds won the award a total of 7 times, which is the most in the history of the National League. He won his first MVP award in 1990 with the Pittsburgh Pirates and then went on to win 6 more with the San Francisco Giants, including three in a row from 2001 to 2003. His 7 MVP awards are just one of the many achievements that make up his impressive career.

What position has won the most NL MVP awards?

The position that has won the most National League MVP awards is the outfield position. Outfielders have won the award a total of 70 times since the inception of the award in 1931. This is largely due to the fact that outfielders are typically some of the best hitters on their respective teams and have the ability to make game-changing defensive plays as well. In contrast, pitchers have won the National League MVP award only 11 times, and catchers have won it only 9 times.

What team has brought home the most NL MVP awards?

The St. Louis Cardinals have brought home the most National League MVP awards as a team, with their players winning the award a total of 19 times. The Cardinals have a long and storied history in the National League, having been founded in 1882 and winning 11 World Series championships over the course of their history. Some of the Cardinals' most famous MVP winners include Stan Musial, who won the award three times, and Albert Pujols, who won it three times as well during his tenure with the team. Other notable Cardinals MVP winners include Joe Medwick, Ken Boyer, Bob Gibson, and Willie McGee. Also, don't forget about last year's winner, Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.