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Our NBA player props went up in smoke last night as we endured the dreaded reverse sweep. The sad thing was none of those plays were even close to winning. In sports betting, you have to be prepared for the inevitable highs and lows that come with the business.
Tuesday means that we get the usual NBA on TNT doubleheader. Golden State visits Dallas in the early tipoff while the Clippers head to Portland to take on the Blazers in the late nightcap. It's hard to find value with only 3 games on the board but we were able to dig up 2 player props that are worth playing.
Check out our 2 PrizePicks props for the Warriors at Mavericks clash. Let's cash both of these! Best of luck with all of your Tuesday NBA bets.
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Luka Doncic OVER 8.5 Rebounds
This is our favorite player prop on the NBA board for Tuesday. Doncic always shows up against Golden State and tonight will be no different. The 23-year-old (can you believe he's still only 23?) will try his best to outduel Steph Curry and the defending champion Warriors.
This prop has clear value according to our numbers, which project almost 11 rebounds for Luka tonight. We love that Doncic is averaging 9 rebounds per game through 10 home games this season. We also love that he's averaging 8.7 rebounds per game this season and 8.6 for his career.
There's a reason why this Over is juiced to -135 at Caesars and -130 at DraftKings. The juice is heavy because the Over is the most likely outcome. The matchup also favors Doncic Over 8.5 rebounds because Golden State only ranks 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (53.8).
Here are some trends that also support the Over for Doncic's rebounding total. He's gone over this number in 5 of his last 8 games. Last season, Doncic grabbed 9 or more boards in 36 of 65 games (55%).
Lastly, the Mavs are keeping Doncic on the floor even more than he normally is. So far this season, he's averaging 2 more minutes of playing time per contest compared to last season. More time on the floor is always a good thing when you're betting an Over!
Dorian Finney-Smith UNDER 10.5 Points
To close out our PrizePicks 2-pick Power Play, let's roll with an Under. Finney-Smith has some nice skills but he's never been known as a prolific scorer. He's only averaging 9.3 points per game this season and 8.2 for his career with the Mavs.
The former Florida Gator is 12-7 to the Under versus this point total on the young season. Finney-Smith has also stayed Under this point total in 4 of his last 6 games. We love that Caesars has this Under juiced to -132 and DraftKings has it at -125.
The matchup also favors Finney-Smith going under this point total. Golden State doesn't have an elite defense but they do rank 10th in opponent shooting percentage this year (46%). Look for Draymond Green and company to keep Finney-Smith under wraps tonight in Dallas.
Let's face it. This is a primetime game and Mr. Doncic will be doing the majority of the scoring for the Mavs. Finney-Smith will score a little but he'll still go Under 10.5 points.
