Let’s start with a brief statement to set expectations for those filling out NCAA tournament brackets: No one knows what will happen. Whether it’s your first time filling out a bracket or you’re the person who runs your office pool, you will likely cringe when checking your selections by the end of the day on Friday.
According to CBS Sports, every bracket among the millions of entries in 2021 and 2022 got at least one pick wrong in the first round. So even the college basketball experts can’t predict when Oral Roberts will beat Ohio State or that St. Peter’s will upset Kentucky.
Now that we’re all on the same page, let’s walk through two simple tips to fill out your bracket. The goal, as Jim Valvano famously said, is to survive and advance as long as possible.
Pick Some Cinderellas…
The magic of this tournament is that teams from all parts of the country, big or small, compete on the same court with their seasons on the line. Per a USA Today article, there are an average of 6.2 upsets in the first round of the NCAA tournament each year.
The games most likely to see upsets are the 6-11 matchups and 7-seeds vs. 10-seeds. 39% of those first-round meetings have ended with the lower-seeded team winning since 1985. 12-seeds have also beaten 5-seeds in 36% of their games in that time.
One of these lower-seeded teams will likely win multiple games if they can overcome the first hurdle. A recent ESPN article cited that a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16 in the last fourteen tournaments.
…But Not to Win it All
Two double-digit seeded teams have made Final Four runs in the last four tournaments, as we covered in a recent Cinderella piece. Loyola-Chicago in 2018 and UCLA in 2021 both reached that pinnacle as 11-seeds.
Since 2011, 11 teams seeded 7th or lower have made the Final Four. That’s more than twice as many from 1985-2010, when only five such teams reached the national semifinals. The only team among them to hoist the trophy was Connecticut in 2014 as a 7-seed.
However, it’s likely that the top teams will factor into who actually wins the title. According to ESPN, #1 seeds have won 60% of the NCAA basketball championships since 1979. In the last 15 editions of this tournament, a 1-seed has won 12 times. No double-digit seed has ever made the national championship game.
One Interesting Note
The Houston Cougars are a 1-seed in this year’s tournament for the second time in school history. The last time this occurred, their famous Phi Slama Jama team went to the title game before falling to Jimmy V’s NC State Wolfpack at the buzzer.
This year’s team spent seven weeks atop the polls, including the final three of the regular season, and is 31-3 entering the tournament after losing to Memphis in the AAC championship game.
If the Cougars make another Final Four run, they’d be playing at Houston’s NRG Stadium, just five miles from their home gym. As a #1 seed, the path is cleared for the national semifinal and championship rounds to feel like home games to Houston.
