Our best bets in the player prop department for both NFC games last weekend finished 4-0 as DeVonta Smith hit the over on his receptions despite Jalen Hurts’ remaining well below his passing yard total on Saturday.
Christian McCaffrey finished 15+ yards below his receiving yard total, while Robbie Gould nailed four field goals to cash his over on Sunday evening. That performance extended a great stretch over the last couple of weeks for our prop plays, and we have one more doubleheader to focus on before the incoming Super Bowl prop bonanza.
The Philadelphia Eagles are currently 2.5-point favorites at home against the San Francisco 49ers in a matchup between high-scoring offenses and brutal defenses. The 46-point total projects a close final score somewhere in the low-20s. We look ahead to the finer points of this matchup next and present our player prop best bets in Sunday afternoon’s NFC title game.
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Brock Purdy UNDER 0.5 Interceptions
Best Available Odds: +118 at Caesars
Bettors will be expecting the rookie standout to be wide-eyed against an Eagles’ defense that tied for fourth in the league in interceptions this season. Philly was 2nd in the NFL in QB pressure rate this season and will apply that to Purdy just like Dallas did (4 QB hits, 2 sacks in the Divisional round).
The reason we’re taking the under is linked to coach Kyle Shanahan’s ability to game plan and prepare his quarterback to take the safe route when in doubt.
Purdy posted his lowest passer rating since he took over the 49ers’ QB job last week but did not turn the ball over, and his team relied on defense and kicking to propel them to victory. We see a similar formula playing out this week if he’s to win on the Eagles’ home field.
Jalen Hurts OVER 247.5 Passing Yards
Best Available Odds: -114 at FanDuel
Hurts threw just 24 pass attempts against the Giants last week as Philly bludgeoned New York with 268 rushing yards on 44 carries. We expect the Eagles to have a harder time running the ball against an opponent that allowed 77 yards per game on the ground this season.
Hurts will have a better shot at putting Philadelphia in scoring position through the air based on the regular season.
San Francisco ranked 20th in pass defense in 2022 and recently allowed performances of 250+ yards to Geno Smith and Jarrett Stidham. We like Hurts to lead the Eagles down the field with his arm several times on Sunday.
Miles Sanders UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards
Best Available Odds: -120 at DraftKings
Sanders’ workload has fluctuated in the latter part of the season, and in six of the Eagles’ last nine regular season games, he had 13 carries or less.
The ballcarriers who have surpassed the 50-yard mark against San Francisco in recent weeks have needed 15, 17, and 22 carries to hit that number, and we don’t think Sanders will get that amount of work.
Kenneth Gainwell popped up for 12 carries against the Giants last week and will likely be mixed in with Sanders against San Francisco as the Eagles try to establish a rushing attack. We project that will lead to fewer than 50 rushing yards for Sanders.
Robbie Gould OVER 1.5 Field Goals
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
This game has a similar feel to last week’s ugly 49ers’ win against the Cowboys in that Purdy will be under constant pressure, and both Philadelphia and Dallas were top-11 in the league in preventing red-zone touchdowns.
The conservative game plan, especially inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, that we expect San Francisco to deploy will mean at least two attempts for Gould on Sunday.
The veteran is perfect in his postseason career, and we don’t see any reason for that to end in this matchup. This guy is as good as gold (pun intended)!
Bonus Bet: Deebo Samuel UNDER 4.5 Receptions
Best Available Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Samuel is an absolute beast, but we don't think he'll fare well against this Eagles' pass defense. Philly leads the league in yards per pass allowed, so we expect Kyle Shanahan to try and pound the rock instead of airing it out.
The former South Carolina star has stayed under this receptions total in 3 of the last 4 games. For the season, Samuel is averaging 4.3 receptions per game. He'll probably make a couple of nice grabs, but we still think he finishes under this total.
