Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty Prediction: Can Slumping Storm Slow Down Ionescu and Co.?

The Seattle Storm head into Barclays Center on Wednesday night riding one of the worst stretches of their season, and this rematch with the New York Liberty comes just two days after New York handled Seattle 95-83 in Brooklyn. The Storm arrive at 6-25 overall and a brutal 1-14 in Western Conference play, a number that tells the story of a rebuilding roster still finding its footing. The Liberty, by contrast, sit at 17-13 and have climbed into the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, positioning themselves as one of the more dangerous teams heading into the stretch run despite battling injuries to some of their best players all year.

New York has had to piece things together without full continuity from its top trio, but the roster’s depth has carried the Liberty through a difficult middle portion of the schedule. Seattle, meanwhile, has leaned on its young frontcourt to stay competitive on a nightly basis even as the losses have piled up, and Wednesday’s second meeting in three days gives them a quick shot at revenge on the road.

Liberty Open as Heavy Favorites Again

Oddsmakers see this one shaping up almost identically to Monday’s meeting. New York opened as roughly -400 to -500 favorites on the moneyline depending on the book, with Seattle sitting out near +360. The spread has the Liberty laying 9.5 points, and the total is set at 181.5 — nearly identical to the 183.5 total posted for the first meeting, which finished well under at 178 combined points. That under trend is notable given how often Seattle’s offense has stalled against set defenses this season, and it’s part of why several handicappers are already circling the under again in the rematch.

New York being priced this heavily at home against a team with the league’s second-worst record isn’t a surprise. The Liberty have won four of their last five games and have controlled the boards and the turnover battle in most of their recent outings, both areas where Seattle has struggled to keep pace against playoff-caliber competition.

Ionescu’s Hot Streak Meets Seattle’s Frontcourt Answer

Sabrina Ionescu has been the engine for New York’s recent surge, averaging right around 21 points, four rebounds and 5.5 assists over her last ten games while shooting better than 46% from the field and a sharp 37.5% from three. With Satou Sabally still working through concussion protocol and Leonie Fiebich sidelined since early July with a foot injury, Ionescu has had to shoulder more of the offensive burden, and she’s answered the call. Jonquel Jones and the Liberty’s frontcourt rotation have also done enough on the glass to offset the absences, and New York’s depth was on full display in Monday’s win over Seattle, when the Liberty controlled the paint for most of four quarters.

Seattle’s lone bright spot has been rookie center Dominique Malonga, who has emerged as arguably the most productive young big in the league not named Clark’s supporting cast. Malonga is averaging close to 17 points and better than seven rebounds a night on efficient shooting, and she’s posted a string of double-doubles over her last several appearances while playing extended minutes. She dropped 20 points and 10 rebounds against this same Liberty team back on July 23, showing she’s capable of producing against quality opposition even when the rest of the roster struggles. The problem for Seattle is that Malonga alone hasn’t been enough to change outcomes — the Storm have lost seven straight games overall, including a lopsided defeat to Indiana in their most recent home outing, and their perimeter shooting and depth simply haven’t matched what playoff-hopeful teams like New York can throw at them.

Head-to-head, the Liberty have now beaten Seattle in their two meetings this season, most recently covering that same 9.5-point number comfortably in the first matchup. New York’s size advantage in the frontcourt and its ability to generate second-chance points have been the deciding factors both times, and nothing about Seattle’s injury report — which includes Jordan Horston and Ezi Magbegor already out for the year — suggests the Storm will have the horses to change that formula on the road.

Bettors shopping this line around before tip-off should compare multiple books, since a game like this with a wide double-digit spread often sees the number move depending on where injury news lands throughout the day. Anyone new to comparing lines across sportsbooks can find a quick primer through this odds shopping guide before placing a bet on either side of the spread.

Prediction and Best Bet

Seattle’s rookie-driven frontcourt keeps this from turning into a complete blowout, but New York’s depth, size and Ionescu’s current form are simply too much for a Storm team playing its eighth game in a stretch riddled with 1-14 conference basketball. Expect the Liberty to control the pace, win the rebounding battle again, and pull away in the second half the way they did on Monday.

• Prediction: New York Liberty 94, Seattle Storm 80
• Best Bet: New York Liberty -9.5

The Liberty have now covered a nearly identical number against this same opponent, and with Sabally and Fiebich both trending toward eventually returning to a rotation already playing well without them, New York’s margin for error against a 1-14 conference team on the road is simply too big to bet against.