Valkyries vs. Dream Prediction: WNBA Finals Game 4 Picks and Best Bet

The Atlanta Dream are 40 minutes closer to the first championship in franchise history, and the Golden State Valkyries are running out of ways to stop it. The Dream lead the WNBA Finals 2-1 and host Game 4 at State Farm Arena on Saturday, October 24 at 1:00 PM ET. Atlanta (30-14) has won back-to-back games after Golden State (32-12) stole the opener 68-64, and a win Saturday would put the Dream one victory from the title with the series heading back to San Francisco.

Dream Are Heavy Favorites After Two Straight Wins

The market has made its feelings clear. Atlanta is a 4.5-point home favorite with the total set at 153.5, and the moneyline sits around Dream -198 and Valkyries +164. That price implies Atlanta wins roughly two out of every three times these teams play this game, which tracks with how lopsided the last two results have been. The Dream have won Games 2 and 3 by a combined 40 points, and they have now covered the spread in nine straight games.

The number is not small, but it is not outrageous either given the way the series has trended. Golden State’s offense has been the story, and not in a good way. If you want to understand how the sportsbooks arrive at these lines, our guide on how betting odds work breaks down the math behind a moneyline like -198.

Atlanta’s Offense Finally Found Its Footing

After shooting under 34 percent in both games in San Francisco, the Dream’s offense looked like a different team on their home floor. They put up 97 points in Game 3, a 26-point win, and took control with a 22-8 run in the third quarter. Atlanta never trailed in that game, and it was the first home Finals win in franchise history.

Angel Reese has been the engine. She had 30 points and 16 rebounds in Game 2 and followed it with 21 points and 12 rebounds in Game 3, becoming the first player in WNBA history to post a double-double in each of her first three Finals games. Rhyne Howard added 16 points and five steals in Game 3, and Naz Hillmon chipped in 15 more. Jordin Canada, the engine of Atlanta’s transition game, dished out eight assists. The Dream spend more time in transition than any team in the league, and when the shots fall, that pace is difficult to answer.

Golden State’s Shooting Problem Is Getting Serious

The Valkyries won the regular-season series 3-0 and took Game 1 of the Finals behind 26 points from Gabby Williams, but the offense has not shown up since. Golden State has not shot better than 35 percent from the field in any game this series, and Game 3 was a perfect example. Williams was 5-for-18 from the floor in the loss, though she still finished with 15 points and eight assists. Kiah Stokes grabbed 11 rebounds, and that was about the only thing going right on the glass.

Golden State’s formula all year has been defense and a few big shot-makers, and that formula works when games stay in the 60s. It does not work when Atlanta gets out and runs. The Valkyries need to slow the game down, win the possession battle, and hope Veronica Burton and Williams can generate enough clean looks to keep things close. On the injury front, Brionna Jones (leg) is listed for the Dream, so check the status before tip.

The Valkyries also have history on their side in one respect: they have beaten this Dream team three times this season, and they know how to win ugly. But with the series on the line and the crowd behind Atlanta, the margin for error is slim. If you are looking to bet on tonight’s game and beyond, our rundown of top sportsbook promo codes can help you find a welcome offer.

One more factor worth watching is tempo. Atlanta scored the most points in the paint in the regular season, averaging 43.6 per game, and the Valkyries allowed opponents to get out in transition on only 14 percent of possessions, so whichever team imposes its preferred style early will probably decide the game. In Game 3 it was clearly the Dream, who held Golden State scoreless for the first five minutes and never gave up the lead.

Prediction and Best Bet

Atlanta has the momentum, the home floor, and the better offense right now. Golden State’s path to a win runs through a low-scoring grind, and the Dream have shown they can win that style too, as they did in Game 2. The Valkyries are better than their shooting numbers suggest, so a late push is plausible, but the Dream should have enough to protect home court.

• Prediction: Atlanta Dream 84, Golden State Valkyries 75
• Best Bet: Atlanta Dream -4.5

Atlanta has covered nine consecutive games, has won the last two Finals games by 14 and 26, and gets to play in front of its home crowd with a championship within reach. At only 4.5 points, the Dream spread is the right side. Take Atlanta to win and cover.