Dream vs. Valkyries Game 5 Prediction: WNBA Finals Pick and Best Bet

The WNBA Finals are down to a best-of-three, and the Atlanta Dream and Golden State Valkyries are tied 2-2 heading into Game 5 at Chase Center in San Francisco. Tip-off is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on Monday, October 26, with the game airing on USA Network and Peacock. Golden State (32-12) owns home-court advantage as the No. 2 seed, while Atlanta (30-14) has been very good on the road, going 15-7 away from home this season.

The series has swung wildly. The Valkyries took Game 1 by a 68-64 score, the Dream answered with a 79-65 win in Game 2 and a 97-71 blowout in Game 3, and then Golden State grabbed Game 4 in Atlanta, 67-62. Whoever wins Monday night will be one victory from a championship with Game 6 looming back in Georgia on Thursday.

A Coin-Flip Line for a Winner-Take-Control Game

The market sees this as about as even as a Finals game can get. Golden State is a narrow home favorite at roughly -1.5 on the spread, with the total sitting around 149.5 to 150.5 points depending on the book. On the moneyline, the Valkyries are priced near -117 and the Dream near -105, which tells you oddsmakers are giving the home crowd only a sliver of credit. Some outlets are even leaning Atlanta on the moneyline at close to pick’em prices.

If you are new to reading numbers like these, our guide on how betting odds work breaks down what a spread of 1.5 and a moneyline near even money actually imply. The key takeaway is that there is almost no cushion in this number, so the side you like has to win the game outright more often than not.

Defense Flipped the Series in Game 4

For two games, Atlanta looked like the better team. Angel Reese had a double-double in each of the first three games and averaged 25.5 points and 14 rebounds across the two Dream wins. Game 4 was a different story. Golden State built a series-high 16-point lead before halftime, held Reese to eight points on 2-of-12 shooting, and won the turnover battle by forcing 18 Atlanta giveaways while committing only nine of its own. The Valkyries also piled up eight steals to the Dream’s four.

Gabby Williams led the way with 17 points, and four Valkyries reached double figures. Veronica Burton, who is averaging 12.2 points and 5.7 assists, hit a key three late to briefly quiet a Dream run, and center Kiah Stokes kept swatting everything near the rim. Stokes blocked three shots in Game 4 and now has 14 in the series, a new WNBA Finals record that breaks the old mark of 12.

The Valkyries were not shooting well from deep, hitting just 4 of 25 from three-point range, yet they still won because they scored 38 points in the paint to Atlanta’s 28. That is a notable shift from Game 3, when the Dream outscored them 44-20 inside. If Golden State can keep the paint battle close and keep the turnovers down, it has the formula to protect home court.

What Atlanta Needs to Fix

The Dream shot just 33.3 percent in Game 4 and still had a chance late, cutting the deficit to 66-62 on a three-point play by Rhyne Howard with 28 seconds left. Howard led Atlanta with 19 points, and she has been one of the few Dream players who consistently creates good looks. Reese, who is averaging 16.4 points and 12.1 rebounds and had been scoring 21.1 points per game in this series heading into Game 4, missed several layups in the fourth quarter that she normally finishes.

Allisha Gray is the other storyline. She had a minor procedure on her left hand before the Finals and has not missed a game in the series, but her status has been listed as in question ahead of Game 5. If she cannot go, Isobel Borlase and DeWanna Bonner would likely see more minutes, and that would thin an already inconsistent Atlanta offense. Anyone betting a Dream line or a related player prop should check the injury report close to tip-off, and it is smart to compare prices across several books using the approach in our odds shopping guide.

On the flip side, Atlanta has plenty of reasons to believe in a bounce-back. The Dream are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and both of their Finals wins were comfortable, by 14 points in Game 2 and 26 in Game 3. Their ceiling in this series has been higher than Golden State’s, even if Game 4 showed how thin the margin can be.

Prediction and Best Bet

Gabby Williams called Chase Center the Valkyries’ sixth man, and Golden State went 3-0 against Atlanta in the regular season. The Valkyries have also shown they can win ugly, which is exactly the kind of game Game 5 figures to be. Expect another defensive grind, with Stokes protecting the rim and Williams and Burton setting the pace, and expect the total to stay in the neighborhood of the posted number.

• Prediction: Golden State Valkyries 77, Atlanta Dream 72
• Best Bet: Golden State Valkyries -1.5

At a number this small, the Valkyries only need to win the game to cover, and they have the home crowd, the defensive momentum from Game 4, and the rim protection of Stokes. Laying a point and a half with the home team in a tied Finals game is the cleanest play on the board, and any bettor looking to put the pick into action can start with our list of top sportsbook promo codes.