Valkyries vs. Dream Game 3 Prediction: WNBA Finals Best Bet for October 21

The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 and heading to Atlanta, where the Dream will host the Golden State Valkyries at State Farm Arena on Wednesday night at 8:00 PM ET. Golden State (32-12) grabbed a gritty 68-64 win in Game 1, then Atlanta (30-14) answered with a 79-65 rout at Chase Center on Monday to level the best-of-seven series. Games 3 and 4 were moved to the bigger State Farm Arena to accommodate more fans, and whoever wins tonight takes a firm grip on the championship.

Dream Are Short Favorites, but the Total Is the Real Story

The market has leaned toward the home team. Atlanta is laying roughly 2.5 to 3.5 points depending on the book, with the moneyline sitting around Dream -142 to -162 and Valkyries +120 to +136. The total is hovering between 150.5 and 152.5, which is notable given that Game 1 finished with only 132 combined points and Game 2 with 144. Oddsmakers are betting that the scoring will tick up after two grinding games and two cold-shooting offenses.

If you want to compare prices before locking in a play, our how betting odds work guide breaks down what a number like -3.5 versus -2.5 really means for your return.

Reese Rebounds, Valkyries Turn It Over: What Changed in Game 2

Game 2 was a near-total reversal of the opener. Angel Reese, who faded down the stretch in Game 1, was dominant with 30 points on 10-of-16 shooting, 16 rebounds, three assists and two blocks. Allisha Gray added 18 points, Jordin Canada produced 13 points and 10 assists (including a half-court buzzer-beater to close the third quarter), and Rhyne Howard set a Finals single-game record with six steals even while her shot continued to struggle. Atlanta won the rebounding battle 36-32 and, more importantly, forced 19 Golden State turnovers while committing only 14 of its own.

The Valkyries shot just 34% from the floor, never led by more than six points in Game 2, and managed only nine points in the third quarter while Atlanta poured in 21. Gabby Williams and Tiffany Hayes each scored 14 to lead the way, with Veronica Burton adding 11. Williams was the engine of Game 1, going for 26 points, but she needed 22 shots to get there and went 3-of-15 from the field in Game 2, with much of her production coming at the free-throw line and four steals.

Key Matchups That Will Decide Game 3

The first is the glass and the paint. Atlanta’s frontcourt, anchored by Reese, has the size advantage, but Golden State out-rebounded the Dream 41-35 in Game 1 and stole that game despite shooting 32% from the field. The Valkyries win by making the game ugly and creating extra possessions, and they showed they can do it on the road in a Finals setting.

The second is three-point shooting. Both teams have been miserable from deep in the series. Atlanta hit just 4 of 25 from beyond the arc in Game 1 and 7 of 25 in Game 2, while Golden State went 7 of 33 and 7 of 24. At some point one of these offenses will regress toward the mean, and the team that does it first at State Farm Arena probably wins. Howard, who managed 12 points on 3-of-14 shooting in Game 1, is the most obvious candidate for a bounce-back from the Dream.

The third is ball security. The Valkyries were crisp in Game 1 with only 10 turnovers but looked rattled in Game 2, when they committed 19. Veronica Burton, who averages just under four assists per game, has to settle the offense against the pressure of Canada and Howard. If Golden State keeps giving the ball away at that clip, the Dream will cruise at home.

On the injury front, Dream forward Brionna Jones remains out with a leg injury and guard Matilde Villa is out on a coach’s decision. Gray, who missed time in the semifinals with a left-hand injury, has been back in the lineup for the Finals and scored 19 points in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2. Golden State’s Iliana Rupert is out for non-injury reasons.

Prediction and Best Bet

Both teams have defended well enough to turn this series into a half-court slog, but home court, Reese’s presence on the glass and Golden State’s turnover problem tilt Game 3 toward Atlanta. The Valkyries are tough and well coached, and Game 1 proved they can win ugly, so a blowout is unlikely. Expect a tight game that Atlanta pulls away from late behind Reese, Gray and Canada.

• Prediction: Dream 79, Valkyries 73
• Best Bet: Dream -3.5

Atlanta has the best player on the floor, the home crowd and the momentum from a 14-point statement win, and laying 3.5 with the home team is the cleanest way to back that edge. If you plan to shop around, check the DraftKings promo code offer and compare lines across apps before placing the bet.