Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction: Aces Ride Six-Game Streak Into Regular-Season Finale

The Las Vegas Aces close out the 2026 regular season on the road Thursday night, visiting the Phoenix Mercury at Mortgage Matchup Center with tip-off set for 10:00 p.m. ET. This one carries real playoff stakes for Las Vegas: the defending champions enter at 30-13 and sitting third in the Western Conference, and a win paired with a Golden State Valkyries loss to the Los Angeles Sparks the same night would bump the Aces up to the No. 2 seed heading into the postseason. Phoenix, meanwhile, is playing out the string at 16-27 and sixth in the West, but the Mercury have won consecutive games and enter with some momentum of their own, including a wild 87-86 comeback win over a playoff-bound Dallas Wings squad on Monday.

Las Vegas has been the league’s most dominant team over the past month, riding a six-game winning streak that includes wins over the Sparks, Storm, and Wings by a combined margin that has left little doubt about how well this roster is peaking right before the playoffs begin. Phoenix, by contrast, is closing the book on a lost season, but that doesn’t mean this is a game to overlook — teams playing loose with nothing left to lose have a way of making things interesting, especially at home.

What the Betting Market Thinks of This One

Oddsmakers see this as a significant mismatch. Las Vegas opened as roughly a 9.5-point favorite and the number has held firm across most books, with the Aces moneyline sitting around -450 to -480 depending on the sportsbook and Phoenix priced near +350. The total is set at 175.5, reflecting the expectation of a fast-paced, high-possession game between two teams that both like to push tempo. Bettors have leaned heavily toward Las Vegas against the number this season — the Aces are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven meetings with the Mercury, and market pricing across BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars all cluster tightly around that same 9.5-point line, suggesting sharp agreement on how lopsided this final regular-season matchup should be.

Bettors weighing a spread play here should also account for finale dynamics — Las Vegas has already clinched its playoff positioning range and could manage minutes for its stars, while Phoenix has extra incentive to play hard and finish the year on a high note in front of its home crowd. That combination has, at times this season, produced backdoor cover scenarios for shorthanded underdogs. Fans doing final bankroll math before betting should check a payout calculator to see exactly how spread and total combinations shake out before placing anything.

Wilson’s MVP-Caliber Season Meets a Desperate Mercury Squad

A’ja Wilson has been the best player in the WNBA all season, and the numbers back it up emphatically. The four-time MVP is averaging a league-leading 26.0 points per game to go with 9.4 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and a robust 52.5 percent shooting clip, and she surpassed 1,000 points for the season for the second time in her career during Las Vegas’ win over Seattle last weekend. She’s also shooting a career-best 40.7 percent from three, giving the Aces an inside-out threat that has been nearly impossible for opposing defenses to scheme around all year. Alongside her, Jackie Young has quietly put together arguably her best season as a pro, averaging 19.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 92.8 percent from the free-throw line. Young has been especially locked in of late, averaging 25.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.8 rebounds across her last six outings, including a 35-point outburst against the Storm and a 23-point, eight-assist effort in the regular-season home finale against the Sparks.

Las Vegas will be without NaLyssa Smith, who is out for the season with a leg injury suffered in late August, and Jaylyn Barker is also done for the year. Still, the Aces’ depth has been enough to overwhelm most opponents down the stretch, and they enter this game ranked second in the league in scoring offense (91.3 points per game), field goal percentage (48.4 percent), and assists (21.9 per game), while sitting first in blocks per game.

Phoenix’s story down the stretch has been Kahleah Copper, who has continued to produce at a high level even as the Mercury’s season slipped away. Copper is averaging 21.6 points per game on 44.9 percent shooting and delivered a 31-point outburst in Monday’s win over Dallas, showing she can still take over a game against good competition. The Mercury also got a boost from Alanna Smith, who’s chipping in 7.8 rebounds and a team-best 8.5 assists per game, giving Phoenix a secondary playmaking option even with Kelsey Plum sidelined for the rest of the season with a lower-leg injury. Guard Jovana Nogic is also unavailable, though for reasons unrelated to injury. With Plum out, ball-handling duties fall heavily on Copper and Smith, and Phoenix will need a clean game from both to keep this one from getting away in the second half, historically where Las Vegas has separated from opponents this season.

Prediction and Best Bet

Las Vegas has been the best team in the WNBA over the last six weeks, and nothing about Phoenix’s roster — even with Copper playing well — suggests the Mercury can slow down Wilson and Young for 40 minutes. The Aces have won five of their last six meetings with Phoenix by double digits, and with playoff seeding still technically in play, expect Las Vegas to play its rotation with intent rather than rest starters early. Phoenix’s recent form and Copper’s scoring give this game a puncher’s chance to stay within the number for stretches, but the class gap between these two rosters should ultimately show up on the scoreboard.

• Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 92, Phoenix Mercury 80
• Best Bet: Las Vegas Aces -9.5

The Aces have been the far superior team on both ends of the floor all season, and with something tangible still on the line in the standings, Las Vegas has every reason to close out the year with another statement win.