The final game of the 2023 NFL Wild Card weekend slate kicks off Monday night when the No. 5 seed Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) travel to Florida to face the No. 4 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) at Raymond James Stadium.
The Eagles slid into the playoffs. After starting the season 10-1, Philadelphia lost five of its next six games to lose both the NFC’s top spot and the East division title. Now, the Eagles will start the defense of the NFC Championship on the road.
Conversely, the Buccaneers enter the NFL playoffs as one of the hotter teams in the NFC. After falling to 4-7, Tampa Bay posted wins in five out of their next six games to win the NFC South title, outlasting teams with a stingy defense that improved throughout the course of the season.
This is the second time these two teams have faced off against each other. In the previous matchup, Philadelphia jumped out to a 22-3 lead in the third quarter and never trailed, winning 25-11 over Tampa Bay. Will history repeat itself? And what players will make an impact in the final Wild Card weekend game? We’ll reveal our answers to that and our best bet below.
Baker Mayfield OVER 233.5 Passing Yards (Caesars)
Tampa Bay’s resurgence coincided with QB Baker Mayfield’s late-season hot streak. After muddling through the year, Mayfield completed over 65% of his passes in the last four games for 1,110 yards and eight TDs against only two interceptions.
For the Buccaneers to stand a chance against Philadelphia, Mayfield will need another strong performance. Philadelphia is the second-worst defense against opposing QBs, yielding more than 267 yards per outing along with two TDs on average to this position in 2023. Expect Mayfield to take advantage of this with a big performance through the air Monday night.
D’Andre Swift OVER 61.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
Although Philadelphia faltered down the stretch, Eagles RB D’Andre Swift is not at fault for the team’s performance. The fourth-year tailback rushed for 227 yards in the last three games on 51 carries, averaging over 4.4 yards per rush. On the year, Swift finished with 1,049 rushing yards on 229 carries and six total scores.
Against the Buccaneers earlier this season, Swift netted 130 rushing yards on 16 carries in his team’s 25-11 victory. Expect the Eagles to feed Swift again Monday night, allowing the RB to exceed the 60.5 rushing yards mark needed to cover this player prop bet.
Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+105) (DraftKings)
When Mayfield went to the air, Buccaneers WR Mike Evans was his top target. For 2023, Evans finished with 79 receptions on 136 targets, 1,255 receiving yards and 13 receiving TDs. The 10-year veteran led his team in receiving yards for the eight time in that span.
In these two team’s first matchup, Evans was held to 60 receiving yards on five catches, but the All-Pro WR did score his team’s lone TD. Expect Mayfield to again connect with Evans for at least one score on Monday night to cover this player prop bet.
Best Bet: Eagles (-3)
Although Tampa Bay is the hotter team entering the playoffs, Philadelphia had its number when the two teams faced off earlier this year. Sure, AJ Brown didn't practice on Thursday, so that's a definite concern. However, we know Brown is a gamer and he'll more than likely play.
The Eagles should again pull out the victory on a Monday night in Tampa, taking home a victory by more than the three points oddsmakers have set for this Wild Card rematch. Let's lay the points with the road team!
