3 Best Props to Back for Jaguars vs Ravens on Thursday Night Football

Thursday Night Football brings a messy, entertaining prop board this week. The 5-2 Jacksonville Jaguars visit M&T Bank Stadium on Prime Video at 8:15 PM ET as roughly 9.5-point favorites, and they are facing a 4-4 Baltimore Ravens team that has dropped three straight and is down to an undrafted rookie at quarterback.

Lamar Jackson (thumb) is headed to injured reserve and Tyler Huntley (toe) is out, so Joe Fagnano is set to make his first career start on a heavily taped ankle. Chaos at quarterback is exactly when a best-of-the-board approach pays off, so we grabbed three props from across the matchup: one running back with a very real injury question, one backup back with a path to extra work, and one tight end whose longest catch keeps coming up short.

Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Jacksonville Jaguars	-10 (-108)	-500	O 40.5 (-105)
Baltimore Ravens	+10 (-113)	+400	U 39.5 (-102)

Bhayshul Tuten Rushing Yards: Check the Status First

Tuten is the lead back in Jacksonville and also the biggest question mark on the board. He has 492 rushing yards on 110 carries (4.5 per carry) this season and is coming off a career game in the 42-7 win over the Colts, where he ran for 104 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. The problem is his ankle and foot. He did not practice Monday or Tuesday, and head coach Liam Coen called him a game-time decision on Wednesday after Tuten said he feels better and expects to be limited.

Underdog has his rushing line at 59.5 yards. If Tuten is active, the under is the play. A back working his way back from two missed practices on a short week is a candidate for a reduced snap count, and with Jacksonville a heavy favorite, a lead could send carries toward Chris Rodriguez Jr., LeQuint Allen and Ameer Abdullah late. The Jaguars have the league’s best rush defense at 77.4 yards allowed per game, so they win by controlling the game, not by feeding one back 25 times.

If Tuten is ruled out, pivot to Rodriguez, who would see a larger role against a Ravens defense allowing 25.4 points per game. His line is near 29.5 yards, and the over becomes the better angle. Wait for the final inactives before you tap anything.

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Over 16.5: Backup With a Path

Justice Hill rarely gets the headlines next to Derrick Henry, but this game script gives him a path to volume. A first-time starting quarterback usually means a heavier dose of handoffs, quick throws and safe plays that keep the offense on schedule, and Hill is the Ravens back who can do damage both ways. His combined rushing and receiving line sits around 32.5 yards, a sign that the market expects a real role.

We like the over on 16.5 rushing yards. Jacksonville’s elite run defense is a legitimate worry, but a Ravens offense that wants to protect a rookie passer has every reason to lean on its backs, and Hill picks up work on changes of pace and when the game forces the offense to stay on the field. Some shops post this number closer to 13.5, so compare lines before you bet. If you are shopping for the best number, our player prop search is a handy place to start.

Mark Andrews Longest Reception Under 11.5: A Cold Streak With a Reason

Mark Andrews has been a staple of the Baltimore passing game for years, but he has not caught a pass of 11 or more yards in six straight games. The under on his longest reception at 11.5 (-115) lines up with that streak and with the matchup. Jacksonville ranks first in the league at preventing yards to tight ends, and with Fagnano under center, the passing game is likely to be built on short, quick throws.

The Jaguars are vulnerable through the air overall, ranking 29th at 253.9 passing yards allowed per game, and they lost defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton and safety Eric Murray for the season. That is a reason to be careful with receiver props, but it does not move the needle much for a tight end who has been living on short catches. All Andrews needs to beat us is one seam route, but six games without one is a strong sample.

The Card for Thursday Night

Here are the three bets, with Tuten’s status as the one swing factor to check before kickoff. For help reading the numbers, our NFL betting guide covers how to compare a line before you bet it.

• Bhayshul Tuten UNDER 59.5 rushing yards (only if active; if he is out, look at Chris Rodriguez Jr. near 29.5)
• Justice Hill OVER 16.5 rushing yards (compare shops, some post 13.5)
• Mark Andrews UNDER 11.5 longest reception (-115)

A rookie quarterback, a hobbled lead back and a tight end in a cold streak is the kind of board where a few sharp props can beat the spread. Check lines and injury news right before kickoff, and enjoy the show.