The Kansas City Chiefs cemented their place in history over the past five seasons, winning three Super Bowls with their back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024. Despite having their worst regular season record in that span, the team earned its eighth consecutive AFC West championship.
The Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders made a bevy of moves this offseason to catch up with the Chiefs’ dynasty, but are these organizations capable of dethroning the champ? We’ll cover that and more in the AFC West preview article below.
Denver Broncos: AFC West Title +2000 / 5.5 Season Wins
Few teams have had the roster turnover that Denver experienced this offseason. Gone are veteran quarterback Russell Wilson and safety Justin Simmons, and more pieces could be traded for high-value draft picks as the Broncos are knee-deep in a rebuild.
Sean Payton does have a quarterback to build around, selecting Oregon’s Bo Nix with the team’s first-round selection. He’ll have Courtland Sutton – at least for now – to throw to, and Josh Reynolds and Marvin Mims are good receivers to complement this offense.
Who Nix will hand off the ball to is anyone’s guess. The committee approach includes Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and rookie Audric Estime behind a line that is mostly intact from last season. The line is perhaps the most reliable offensive tool in Payton’s shed.
Defensively, Patrick Surtain II is the Broncos’ unquestioned star. But a defense that allowed 24.3 points per game and the third-most rushing yards in the NFL gained very little in the draft or free agency to suggest they will improve on last season’s showing.
Prediction: 4th Place Finish AFC West, 3 Season Wins
The Broncos seem content with giving Payton the runway to rebuild the franchise. He’s using it – and more – to overhaul one of the worst rosters in the league.
Expecting this franchise to win more than four games is a stretch. Expect Denver to be the worst team in the AFC next season.
Kansas City Chiefs: AFC West Title -230 / 11.5 Season Wins
Offensively, the Chiefs declined last season as Patrick Mahomes dealt with a subpar receiving corp. Kansas City addressed that with a first-round pick (Xavier Worthy) and in free agency (Hollywood Brown). Mahomes should return to form immediately with the upgraded roster.
Isaiah Pacheco and the majority of the offensive line also return to relieve the pressure from Mahomes. In total, the Chiefs return a majority of their weapons from 2023 for another potential deep playoff run.
How far that run will go depends on their defense. Last season, the Chiefs were the youngest defense in the league, and a majority of their talent returns this season. The defensive line is still anchored by All-Pro Chris Jones while the backfield is manned by Justin Reid and Trent McDuffie.
Prediction: 1st Place Finish AFC West, 11 Season Wins
With a 16th-ranked schedule (based on last season’s record for every NFL team), the Chiefs are a popular bet to take the over and are one of the odds-on favorites to return for a third consecutive Super Bowl run.
While the defense will remain one of the better units in the league, questions surround offensive coordinator Matt Nagy’s ability to improve on last season’s standings.
Each week, they will take every team’s best shots. I fully expect them to win the West, but winning 12 games in the regular season seems a stretch this year.
Las Vegas Raiders: AFC West Title +900 / 6.5 Season Wins
Fittingly, it was the late, great Raiders coach John Madden who said, “If you have two quarterbacks, you actually have none.” That’s the dilemma Las Vegas finds itself in with second-year player Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew battling for the starter role.
The winner does have some nice pieces to work with this season. Wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers return this season, and first-round selection Brock Bowers pairs nicely with Michael Myers as the team’s tight ends.
Defensively is where Antonio Pierce looks to make his mark in his first full season running the Raiders. Defensive end Maxx Crosby is an All-Pro athlete who will leave his mark on opposing offenses, leading a unit that returns seven of its eight top tacklers from last season.
The defense’s question mark resides in the backfield. While safety Trevon Moehrig and Nate Hobbs led the team in pass deflections last season, the other spots in the backfield will be fresh faces for this year’s squad.
Prediction: 3rd Place Finish AFC West, 6 Season Wins
The Raiders have the toughest schedule of any AFC West team (tied for eighth in the NFL), and the team’s best chances to pick up wins are early in the season.
If Las Vegas gets off to a slow start, a 4-13 season is a strong possibility due to its lack of a strong signal caller this season.
Los Angeles Chargers: AFC West Title +350 / 8.5 Season Wins
The league’s other first-year coach is a familiar face for the Golden State. After spending more than a decade coaching the colleges and pro teams in the area, Jim Harbaugh returns to the NFL for his second stint fresh off delivering a national championship to his alma mater.
He’ll start with a great building block in quarterback Justin Herbert. Last year, the quarterback played in 13 games, completing a career-low 65.1 percent of his passes for 3,134 yards and 20 touchdowns. Expect his completion percentage and touchdowns to increase dramatically under Harbaugh.
While Herbert’s receiver room has taken a step backward, the offensive line is where Los Angeles has vastly improved. A run-first philosophy will benefit newcomers J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, a pair of Ravens’ runners last season who will serve as the offense’s one-two punch in 2024.
Prediction: 2nd Place Finish AFC West, 10 Season Wins
In Harbaugh’s first NFL stint, the coach started hot with a 13-3 record in his first season. That roster, however, was ready-made for success.
The Chargers have more work to do, but the main pieces – strong coordinators and Herbert – are there for Los Angeles to have a winning season in 2024. Plus, the 27th-ranked schedule only helps Harbaugh achieve that goal.
