Baseball’s most unlikely playoff story continues this week as the Chicago White Sox travel to Houston for the AL Wild Card Series, a best-of-three set against the Astros that opens Tuesday at Daikin Park at 5 p.m. ET. Chicago is the first team in MLB history to reach the postseason on the heels of three consecutive 100-loss seasons, and fittingly, the team standing in its way is the same Astros club that eliminated the White Sox from the 2021 ALDS.
Houston enters as the AL West champion after finishing 81-81, needing the final day of the regular season to hold off Texas by a single game. Chicago actually posted the better overall record at 84-78 but fell short in the AL Central race behind Cleveland, landing in the Wild Card round instead. Because division winners host every game of a Wild Card Series regardless of record, the Astros get home-field advantage at Daikin Park for the entire set, win or lose.
Setting the Table: The Season Series
The two teams have already squared off plenty this year, and Houston came out ahead. The Astros won the regular-season series 5-2, including a four-game set at Daikin Park in early September that Houston took 3-1, limiting Chicago’s offense to three runs or fewer in each of its wins. That recent history gives Houston a bit of momentum heading into October, even with a roster that has more question marks than a typical division winner.
One Superstar, Two Very Different Supporting Casts
There’s no debating who the best player on the field will be. Yordan Alvarez is the runaway favorite for AL MVP after leading all of baseball in batting average (.316), on-base percentage (.432), slugging percentage (.601) and OPS (1.033), with 42 home runs and 109 RBIs. He’s been on an absolute tear recently — a .400 average and four homers over his final 11 regular-season games — and he’s proven this is exactly the kind of stage he thrives on, carrying a .944 OPS across 60 career playoff games.
Beyond Alvarez, though, Houston’s lineup has real soft spots. Jose Altuve, still one of the greatest postseason performers of his generation with 27 career playoff home runs, saw his regular-season power dip to just 16 homers and a .701 OPS. Christian Walker was excellent early but hit a wall after the break (.208, .645 OPS), and left field has been an ongoing issue for the Astros all season. Chicago’s lineup, while less star-driven, has more balance than its record might suggest. Rookie slugger Munetaka Murakami hit 35 homers and heated up again in the season’s final stretch, third baseman Miguel Vargas quietly authored a 33-homer, 22-steal campaign, and shortstop Colson Montgomery contributed 31 home runs of his own — albeit while setting the all-time single-season strikeout record with 227.
Pitching is where Houston’s edge is clearest, and it’s mostly about one man out of the bullpen. Closer Josh Hader has been dominant since coming back from a biceps injury, posting a 1.01 ERA and converting all 26 of his save opportunities with 55 strikeouts in 45 innings. That kind of ninth-inning security matters enormously in a short series where every game could be decided by a run or two. Starter Hunter Brown gives Houston its best individual arm as well, finishing at 3.19 ERA after returning from a shoulder injury in June, even though the Astros’ rotation as a whole ranked 27th in MLB in ERA. Chicago will lean on Sean Newcomb and rookie flamethrower Grant Taylor in relief, a capable but far less battle-tested duo in October pressure spots.
Prediction and Best Bet
National outlets are genuinely split on this one, with some picking Houston to close it out at home and others betting on Chicago’s underdog magic to continue. Both makes sense — the Astros have the best player on the field and a lockdown closer, while the White Sox have shown all season they don’t fold under pressure and have more depth in the lineup than people expect from a Wild Card team.
Other Game Picks
- Prediction: White Sox 5, Astros 3 in Game 1
- Best Bet: White Sox moneyline
Betting against the house in Houston is never comfortable, but Chicago’s offensive balance and a shaky Astros rotation make the underdog the sharper play in the opener. Fans looking to get a bet on the series can shop lines with a DraftKings Promo Code or check the BetMGM Review for another option, and anyone tracking the bigger October picture can browse World Series futures before the field gets any smaller.
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