October baseball kicks off with a rivalry renewal Tuesday afternoon when the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Truist Park to open a best-of-three NL Wild Card Series against the Atlanta Braves. First pitch for Game 1 is 2 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, with Game 2 following Wednesday at the same time and a Game 3, if necessary, on Thursday. Every game in this series is being played in Atlanta, which matters given how differently these two teams have finished the year.
How Both Teams Got Here
Atlanta cruised to the NL East title at 94-68, finishing seven games clear of Philadelphia and setting up a season where the Braves went 9-4 against the Phillies head-to-head. Philadelphia’s path was far bumpier. The Phillies held a four-game lead over Arizona with five games to play, then lost four straight and had to beat Tampa Bay 7-3 on the final day of the regular season just to claim the last NL Wild Card spot and avoid a genuinely historic collapse. It’s the kind of finish that either signals a team that fixed something just in time, or one that’s still fragile heading into the highest-pressure format in the sport.
What to Watch in Game 1
The headline matchup belongs to Atlanta’s Chris Sale, who finishes the season 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP and 200 strikeouts, good for the third-best ERA in all of baseball. Sale has been particularly tough on Philadelphia this year, posting a 2.08 ERA in four regular-season starts against the Phillies, and he’s dominated two of their most important left-handed hitters specifically. Bryce Harper is a career 2-for-21 against Sale, and Kyle Schwarber is just 2-for-25, a combined 4-for-46 that gives Atlanta real confidence heading into Sale’s first postseason start since 2021.
Philadelphia’s Game 1 starter is genuinely unsettled entering the series. Zack Wheeler was expected to get this assignment before he had to pitch Sunday to help the Phillies clinch, taking him off the table for Tuesday. That leaves manager Don Mattingly choosing between Cristopher Sánchez, who went 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA but threw Friday on short rest, left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who appeared in relief Sunday for the first time since September 7, or rookie Andrew Painter working on his normal schedule. Whoever gets the ball will be doing it without the benefit of a fully rested bullpen behind him, since Philadelphia’s relief corps carries a 5.79 ERA since the start of September.
The Lineups and the X-Factors
Atlanta’s offense has real name recognition even if it cooled somewhat down the stretch. Ronald Acuña Jr. has specifically caught fire against Philadelphia, putting up a 1.377 OPS across seven September games against the Phillies, while Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies round out a lineup that Don Mattingly will have to navigate carefully all series. Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubón were the only other Braves regulars to post a .750 OPS or better in the final month, a reminder that this isn’t a red-hot Atlanta lineup across the board, just one that’s shown up specifically against this opponent.
Philadelphia counters with Trea Turner, Schwarber, Harper, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto, a lineup with plenty of star power on paper but one that’s been among the least productive offenses in the sport throughout September. The good news for Phillies fans watching Tuesday is historical, not statistical. Philadelphia is 10-4 against Atlanta in playoff history and has never lost a postseason series to the Braves, having eliminated them in 1993, 2022 and 2023. That track record doesn’t show up in a box score, but it’s the single biggest reason this series isn’t viewed as a lock for the favorite despite the regular-season gap between these two clubs.
Prediction and Best Bet
Given Sale’s specific track record against Philadelphia’s top left-handed bats and the uncertainty hanging over the Phillies’ own starting pitching plan, Game 1 leans heavily toward the home team putting an early stranglehold on the series.
Other Game Picks
- Prediction: Braves 5, Phillies 2
- Best Bet: Braves -1.5 on the run line
Anyone tuning into Game 1 and looking to get in on the action should compare current numbers using our MLB odds hub before puck drop, and bettors newer to the format may want to brush up with our MLB betting guide first. A DraftKings Promo Code or FanDuel Promo Code can also add extra value on a Game 1 wager, and those looking ahead to the rest of October can check World Series futures as the bracket takes shape this week.
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