Brewers vs. Rays Prediction: World Series Game 4 Pick and Best Bet for October 27

The Milwaukee Brewers are one win from the first championship in franchise history, and they get their shot at it Tuesday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. First pitch for Game 4 of the World Series is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX. Milwaukee (103-59) leads the series 3-0 after a 3-2 win and a 5-4 win at home, followed by a 10-1 rout in Game 3. Tampa Bay (98-64) is staring at elimination and trying to become the first team ever to claw back from an 0-3 hole in the Fall Classic.

History is on the Brewers’ side. In best-of-seven postseason series, teams with a 3-0 lead have gone on to win 42 of 43 times, and 33 of those series ended in a sweep. Only the 2004 Red Sox have come all the way back. A Milwaukee win would also make the Brewers the first team to sweep both a best-of-seven LCS and a World Series, after they swept the Dodgers in the NLCS.

A Modest Brewers Price Despite a Dominant Series

The market has Milwaukee as a road favorite, but not an enormous one. Depending on the book, the Brewers are sitting between -125 and -139 on the moneyline, with the Rays between +109 and +115. The run line has Milwaukee at -1.5 at plus money (roughly +135 to +147) and the total is 7 runs with the juice split fairly evenly. That is not a steep number for a team that has outscored Tampa Bay 18-7 across three games, which says the books are respecting the Rays’ desperation and the uncertainty on the Milwaukee side of the pitching ledger.

That uncertainty is real. The Brewers had not named a Game 4 starter as of Tuesday morning. Brandon Woodruff expected to get the ball and instead pitched the ninth inning of Game 3, so Milwaukee has options: right-hander Dustin May, left-hander Kyle Harrison, left-hander Shane Drohan as an opener, or a late-inning reliever starting the game. Anyone reading the odds should treat a bullpen game as the likely outcome and price the game accordingly.

Tuesday, October 27 at 8:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Milwaukee Brewers	-1.5 (140)	-124	O 7.5 (106)
Tampa Bay Rays	+1.5 (-177)	+111	U 7 (-112)

Griffin Jax Faces a Lineup That Has Not Cooled Off

Tampa Bay is turning to right-hander Griffin Jax, who went 8-10 in the regular season and finished it on a tear, allowing one run over 18 innings across his last four starts, all of them Rays wins. This is only his third appearance of the postseason. He worked out of the bullpen in the ALDS and at the start of this series, and he gave up three runs over four innings as the starter in Game 3 of the ALCS in Cleveland. Jax leans on a swing-and-miss changeup, but his expected ERA of 4.27 sits well above his actual ERA of roughly 3.5, which suggests the quality of contact against him is not as clean as the results look.

That matters against this Milwaukee order. Jackson Chourio leads off and is coming off a four-hit night in Game 3, and he is followed by left-handed bats Jake Bauers and Christian Yelich, with William Contreras behind them. Second baseman Brice Turang, another lefty, helped spark the historic fifth inning in Game 3, when the Brewers scored a World Series record eight two-out runs in a single frame and finished with 16 hits. The Brewers have used the same lineup for all three games of the series and have little reason to change it against another right-hander.

The Rays’ Bats Have Gone Quiet at the Worst Time

The Rays have scored just one run over their last 17 innings, and defensive mistakes have cost them throughout the series. Junior Caminero, who hit 42 homers and drove in 101 runs this season, has not been able to deliver the big swing the offense needs. Manager Kevin Cash will use every arm he has in an elimination game, so expect a short leash on Jax. The problem is that Tampa Bay has to hit its way back in, and facing a Milwaukee relief group that barely worked in Game 3 is a hard way to end a scoring drought.

That rest is the key edge. Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill all sat out the blowout and are fully available, so Milwaukee can cover nine innings even without a traditional starter. For bettors who like to dig into MLB betting angles beyond the side, the Brewers team total and the Rays team total are both worth a look, since Milwaukee has the depth to handle a bullpen game and Tampa Bay has the offensive problems to stay quiet.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Brewers have the deeper lineup, the better-rested bullpen and the momentum, and the Rays have not looked comfortable in this series. An elimination game at home can bring a spirited effort from Tampa Bay, but Milwaukee has answered every challenge so far and has more ways to win a game that turns into a bullpen battle. Expect a tighter game than Monday’s blowout, with Milwaukee finishing the sweep.

• Prediction: Brewers 5, Rays 3
• Best Bet: Brewers on the moneyline

The moneyline is the cleanest way to back Milwaukee at a price that is not inflated by the sweep narrative, and it avoids the run line risk if the Rays scratch out a one-run loss. With Chourio, Yelich and Contreras facing a pitcher who has made just one start this postseason, and a bullpen that is fully rested, the Brewers are the right side to close out the Series.