The first round of the AFC playoffs went according to plan as all three division champions won their opening home playoff game. Now, the Houston Texans (11-7) will attempt to upend the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) inside Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday.
Houston easily won their opening-round game against the Los Angeles Chargers, defeating the AFC West foes 32-12 in the Wild Card round. The Texans’ defense picked off Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times, including Eric Murray’s pick-six to put the home team ahead 20-6 heading into the fourth quarter.
Kansas City enjoyed a bye last week, giving their starters two full weeks of rest since their last competitive game. The Chiefs had their six-game winning streak snapped by Denver in the final week of the season, a game that Carson Wentz started for the Chiefs.
Will the Chiefs upend Houston again in the Divisional Round, repeating their 27-19 performance in last month’s first matchup? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets in the article below.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Over 247.5 Pass Yards | |
| C.J. Stroud | Under 251.5 Pass Yards |
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud OVER 227.5 Passing Yards
Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has not had as much success in his sophomore campaign as he did during his debut season. In 2024, Stroud completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions – all numbers that are worse than his 2023 stats.
Still, he proved why he’s among the game’s elite quarterbacks in the win over Los Angeles. Stroud completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 282 yards and one touchdown against the Chargers last week.
There’s little reason to believe he won’t achieve at least 228 yards against the Chiefs on Saturday. In the previous matchup, Stroud threw for 244 yards, but he also threw for two interceptions while completing less than 60 percent of his passes. Take the over on this player prop bet.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | Over 45.5 Reception Yards | |
| Travis Kelce | Under 48.5 Reception Yards |
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards
For years, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has relied on his future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce. That’s one reason why he owns so many records, especially in postseason play.
Kelce finished as the leading receiver for the depleted Chiefs, catching 97 passes for 823 yards in 2024. While he only had 30 receiving yards against Houston, bettors should expect him to make up for that with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line Saturday and cover his player prop bet.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | Over 11.5 Rush Yards | |
| Patrick Mahomes | Under 12.5 Rush Yards |
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 24.5 Rushing Yards
Mahomes is known for arm, but the quarterback is also mobile. In his career, he’s rushed for 2,243 yards on 432 carries, averaging more than 5.2 yards per rush. He’s still more than 200 yards shy of 25th place on the all-time list of quarterback rushing yards, but he’ll continue to climb the ranks over the next few seasons.
In 2024, he’s run less than in any other season since 2019, carrying the ball just 58 times for 307 yards. He’s surpassed 24 yards in only four games this season, including his last outing against the Texans. Still, bettors should take the under as he prefers to be a pocket passer over a runner.
| Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Houston Texans |  -6 (-111) |  -235 |  O 40.5 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +6 (-112) | +200 | U 40.5 (-110) |
Best Bet: Over 41.5 Points
The last matchup between these two teams ended up in a 27-19 final as the teams combined for 46 total points. That’s the highest combined total a Kansas City game has delivered in more than two months.
Traditionally, teams tend to score less in their rematch, especially with two elite defenses playing each other. The reason bettors should take the over on this contest is that the Chiefs are sure to show some signs of rust after taking off two straight weeks.
Further, the Texans’ offense showed signs of life last week in putting up over 20 points. Expect at least 50 points to be scored in this matchup, a game I believe will be closer than the 8.5-point spread indicates. Kansas City should win, but in a tight, higher-scoring affair than their first game.
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