Texans vs Steelers: Odds, Prediction, and Top Player Prop for Monday Night Football

The Houston Texans will head north to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers to close out NFL Wildcard Weekend on Monday Night Football. Both teams have superior defenses, and both of these offenses have struggled at times this season. Maybe that’s why oddsmakers have set this total on the low side.

How will this one play out? We’ll dive into which team has the edge in each statistical category. Get our predictions and best player prop below. Best of luck, sports betting family.

Opening Odds for Houston vs Pittsburgh

Oddsmakers are making the Texans a very small favorite in this game, as the opening line actually priced Houston as a 2.5-point favorite on the lookahead line. However, most sportsbooks were flooded with lots of early money on Houston. That’s why the Texans are now favored by 3 points at most online sportsbooks as of Monday morning.

The books are expecting a lower amount of scoring in this game. The opening total was 39.5, and now most shops have moved it to 38.5. FanDuel is currently dealing an Under 38.5 for -115 for folks who want to go that route.

Will the Texans Stay Hot?

Despite looking a little rough at times last week against the Colts, this Texans team has been one of the hottest in football over the last couple of months. Houston has won nine in a row and they’re showing no signs of slowing down. It’s amazing how DeMeco Ryans keeps putting his team in the position to win games, even with some glaring weaknesses.

The story of this Houston team is their fierce defense. The Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in points per game allowed, and they rank an insanely good 5th in yards per play allowed. Edge rushers Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have combined for 27 sacks, so the Steelers will probably have to play with more tight ends to help out in pass protection.

The Texans’ offense has been tough to watch at times, mainly because they have plenty of issues along their offensive line. That has caused QB CJ Stroud to not be nearly as sharp. The former Ohio State star still has decent stats (3041 passing yards, 19 TDs), but he’s struggling to make the right reads at times.

Can Aaron Rodgers Get Another Playoff Win?

It’s incredible how Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin have held this Pittsburgh squad together this season. Despite a whole slew of issues, the Steelers still found a way to go 10-7 this season and take down the Ravens last weekend for the AFC North title. Rodgers has been fantastic, as he’s thrown for 3322 yards and 24 TDs this season.

Rodgers’s favorite target all year long has been former Seahawks star DK Metcalf, who leads the team with 850 receiving yards and 6 TDs. Unlike past Tomlin teams, this year’s unit only runs the ball 41% of the time. That’s probably why they rank just 26th in rushing yards per game.

The Steelers’ defense has struggled against the pass this season, as they rank 23rd in yards per pass allowed. However, Pittsburgh’s red zone defense has been good all year long, as they rank 7th in that important metric. The Steelers are also pretty good at rushing the passer, as they rank 11th in sack rate.

Pat Freiermuth Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114) (Unibet) (1 Unit)

This line just looks way too high at first glance. Freiermuth’s median receiving yardage this season is just 20 through 17 regular-season games. Yes, he’s had a couple of good games in a row, but most of that was because star wideout DK Metcalf was serving a suspension for punching a fan in Detroit.

Now that Metcalf is back in the fold, Freiermuth’s targets and receptions should both go back to his usual 3 per game. The matchup is also a tough one for Patty. Houston ranks 6th in yards per pass allowed, and their safeties cover the TE position incredibly well.

The Texans’ defense should be ready to play in this one. DeMeco Ryans undoubtedly ripped that unit a new one after they gave up 30 points to the Colts last weekend. Let’s play Freiermuth to stay under tonight. Good luck, fellow sports bettors!