Super Bowl 60 brings us a rematch of the heavily debated Super Bowl 50. Back in 2015, Pete Carroll made one of the most questionable calls in NFL history, putting the ball into Russell Wilson’s hands, rather than Marshawn Lynch’s, and the rest is history. One has to think Seattle is licking their chops at a sweet revenge spot.
Let’s look into this game and these teams. Seattle has built its identity around physical defense and disciplined football, while New England’s has been fueled all season by a young head coach and a young quarterback making explosive plays, with a defense stout enough to stop anyone. With a 4.5-point spread, this game sets up as a tight, physical battle, where explosive plays could be the difference maker.
| Wednesday, September 9 at 8:15 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| New England Patriots |  +4.5 (-115) |  +185 |  O 44.5 (-109) |
| Seattle Seahawks | -4.5 (-112) |  -205 | U 44.5 (-110) |
Let’s Talk About the Total
Seattle’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing is going to be a key factor, and forcing a turnover or two could seal a tight projected game like this one. New England will likely look to keep the offense balanced, utilizing the rushing attack, while finding spots to push the ball down the field.
The Patriots’ defense has shown they can keep games close by forcing long drives and forcing turnovers, as they have in all three playoff games. While I think Seattle will look to keep the Patriots offense off the field by utilizing Kenneth Walker on the ground.
With two very stingy defenses that can create turnovers and prevent the explosives, that should lead to a lower-scoring, high-leverage fourth quarter. Drake Maye and the Patriots offense has not looked the same since the playoffs started, and outside of playing the Rams veteran-potent offense, the Seahawks have held their last six opponents under 16 points, five under 10 points.
Game Prediction: Under 46 (-114)
Can the Seahawks Slow Maye’s Legs?
Over his last 10 games, Maye’s average longest rush sits at 15.5 yards, with a median of 13. In that same 10-game stretch, Maye has posted longest rushes of 17, 16, 14, 37, and 28 yards.
This prop doesn’t require volume, but books have his line at 6.5 rush attempts, and he has surpassed that twice in the last three weeks.
Maye could finish with only a few rushing attempts and still cash it on one broken scramble. If the Seahawks can get to him without sending extra pressure, that will allow them to keep a linebacker to spy and keep his attempts in check.
I love how aggressive he has been over the course of the season, and even if they are losing, I believe he will have to utilize his legs to give them a chance in this game. The Seahawks have allowed the last four quarterbacks to go over their longest rush line.
Drake Maye Over 13.5 Longest Rush (-120)
Who Knew Darnold Could Scoot?
For those who follow our articles you cashed this prop in his last game, and we are running it back. Sam Darnold’s rushing yards line is currently set at 5.5 yards, and we don’t need volume to cash this one.
Over his last 10 games, Darnold is averaging 6.5 rushing yards, with a median of 6. In that stretch, he’s posted games with 11, 23, 7, 9, and 9 rushing yards, cashing four of his last seven, three of his last five and two of his last three games overall. In the biggest moments, he tends to put pressure on the defense with his feet. We saw it last year in big games down the stretch with the Vikings and we see it here again this season down the stretch.
Like Maye’s prop, this one is not dependent on designed quarterback runs. With one open late, or a need for a first down, Darnold can find 6+ yards with one scramble. In five of his last six games, he has had at least three carries in each.
Sam Darnold Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
Fan Duel Super Bowl Game Special
Only a very small number of Super Bowls have ended with a kneel-down by the winning team to run out the clock. 6 of the last 15 Super Bowls have ended with a kneel-down, with four of those coming in a row. Those include the 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2024 Super Bowls.
FanDuel currently has a Super Bowl special asking whether the game will end in a kneel down and I think that is a fun prop to jump in on. While I do think the Seahawks win, I like a defensive battle here which could lead to one team attempting to tie at the end.
Will the game end in a kneel down? NO (+126)
The smartest 5 minutes in betting
Get the week's best offers, line moves, and data-driven picks — straight to your inbox. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.
Join 240,000+ subscribers. 21+ only.
