2026 NFL Draft Best Bets: Titans on Jeremiyah Love, Under on QBs, and a Tight End Value Play

The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh, and the betting markets are wide open. With Fernando Mendoza locked in as the No. 1 pick to the Las Vegas Raiders, the rest of the first round is a puzzle that bettors can exploit. Here are three draft bets worth having on your ticket.

Titans to Draft Jeremiyah Love (+115) — BetMGM

This is the most talked-about bet on the draft board, and it is not hard to see why. The Tennessee Titans hold the fourth overall pick and have arguably the most obvious need of any team in the top five. After finishing 3-14 in 2025 and cycling through a coaching change with Cam Ward taking his lumps as a rookie, new head coach Brian Daboll needs a superstar offensive weapon to pair with his quarterback. The 2026 class just so happens to have one of the most dominant running back prospects in recent memory sitting right there at the top of the board.

Jeremiyah Love is the real deal. The Notre Dame back won the 2025 Doak Walker Award, racked up 3,014 yards and 40 touchdowns from scrimmage over two seasons, and ran a 4.36 forty at the NFL Combine. At 6-foot, 212 pounds with a three-down skill set, he is the type of workhorse back that can immediately transform an offense. Consensus mock draft data shows Love as the most commonly projected pick at No. 4, with NBC Sports mocking him there in their updated 2.0, ESPN’s Jordan Reid landing him with the Titans in multiple versions, and post-combine mocks overwhelmingly placing him in Tennessee. The Titans addressed their defensive line and secondary in free agency, leaving the offensive skill position hole wide open.

The +115 price on BetMGM is legitimate value. The risk is that Arizona at No. 3 jumps ahead and takes him — a real possibility — and that some mock drafters have the Titans pivoting to edge rusher David Bailey instead. Adam Schefter raised eyebrows before free agency suggesting the pick would not be Love, but roster construction since then has pointed directly back toward an offensive skill player. The consensus mock draft percentage for Love to the Titans sits around 48%, and +115 pricing implies roughly 47% probability — so you are essentially getting a fair price on the most likely outcome while holding the plus-money edge. Take it.

Under 1.5 Quarterbacks in Round 1 (+115) — DraftKings

This is the contrarian play of the draft, and the value is glaring. The book has the over at -190, which implies a 66% chance two or more quarterbacks go in the first round. That seems way too aggressive for a class that most evaluators describe as Mendoza and a steep drop-off. Fernando Mendoza goes first overall to the Raiders — that is essentially a locked bet at -20000 odds. The question is who else is taking a quarterback in round one, and the honest answer right now is: it is hard to identify a team that will.

Unlike 2024, when six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks in a historically loaded class, the 2026 QB depth simply is not there. 365scores.com’s draft preview noted that Mendoza could realistically be the only first-round quarterback in the class. Fantasy Life’s top mocker said he would not be surprised if Mendoza is the lone signal-caller off the board in round one. Ty Simpson (Alabama) is a polarizing prospect — Dan Orlovsky loves him, others think he is a third-round value, and at 6’1″ with modest physical tools he is not the kind of prospect teams reach for early. Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina) are widely projected as Day 2 picks. There is simply no consensus round-one quarterback other than Mendoza in this class, and getting +115 on the under is a gift.

The scenario where the under hits: Mendoza goes No. 1, the Browns — who hold two first-round picks and have shown interest in quarterbacks — pass on Simpson in favor of offensive linemen or skill players, and no other quarterback-needy team reaches for a second signal-caller in the first 32 picks. That is the path that the current mock draft landscape clearly supports. Bet the under.

Kenyon Sadiq Under 15.5 Draft Position (+140) — DraftKings

This is the best pure value bet of the three. Kenyon Sadiq is an Oregon tight end who was one of the biggest winners of the NFL Combine, running a 4.39 forty-yard dash with a 43.5-inch vertical jump and an 11-foot, 1-inch broad jump. For reference, that is elite athleticism for any skill position, let alone a tight end. At 6-foot-3, 241 pounds, he is undersized by traditional standards, but the NFL has been moving toward athletic receiving tight ends who can flex all over the formation, and Sadiq fits that mold better than almost anyone in this class.

The mock draft consensus has him consistently landing between picks 9 and 15. Fantasy Life mocked him to the Chiefs at No. 9. NBC Sports has him to the Ravens at No. 14. ESPN’s Jordan Reid placed him with the Panthers at No. 19 before his combine performance, a number that almost certainly moved up after he tested so explosively. The Baltimore Ravens — sitting at No. 14 — are widely viewed as a dream fit given their need for a mismatch weapon to pair with Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. The Chiefs at No. 9 are another possibility given Travis Kelce’s age. Either way, the mock draft range consistently puts him inside 15.5, and you are getting +140 to back what the data suggests is the most likely outcome.

The risk is that tight end is a devalued position in the modern draft, and teams occasionally let elite TE prospects slide to Day 2 when they have more pressing needs. But Sadiq’s combine explosion and versatility — he can play inline, in the slot, or out of the backfield — make him the kind of prospect that gets overpaid on draft night. A tight end who runs a 4.39 with a 43.5-inch vert does not fall to 16. Back the under 15.5 at +140 and feel good about it.