Atlanta enters this matchup catching a full touchdown, and this number has slowly come down from +9.5 to where the market sits now. Yet Seattle has been the public side all week, and the line continues to fall towards Atlanta, so what gives? Current data looks like 74% of the public tickets are backing Seattle, but only 22% of the money is behind them. Could we have some sharp money detection behind Atlanta? I believe so, and I also agree with the move.
This number feels inflated when you look beyond the records and into the matchup data. Both teams have benefited from soft schedules. Seattle ranks 26th in strength of schedule according to Sagarin, while Atlanta sits close behind at 28th, meaning neither has been tested consistently against top-tier competition.
| Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Atlanta Falcons |  +3 (-118) |  +145 | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -3 (-120) |  -146 | U 41.5 (-115) |
Closer Look at Seattle vs Atlanta Metrics
Seattle’s strength comes from its defense, ranking 3rd in scoring defense (18.1 PPG) and 2nd in rushing yards allowed. Atlanta’s offense matches up well on the ground, averaging 123.9 rushing yards per game (9th NFL) and ranking top 10 in offensive red zone efficiency (64.7%).
If the Falcons can stay on schedule and avoid third-and-long situations, which is a weakness ranking just 29th in 3rd down conversion rate, they can keep this competitive. With Cousins coming into his 3rd straight start and getting more comfortable with each, I expect an even more polished game this week.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s defense looks to have some strengths that could slow down this Seattle offense. The Seahawks sit T-2nd in scoring (29.2 PPG), but they’re turnover prone, ranking 2nd in the league (31st NFL) in giveaways, and now face a Falcons defense that ranks top 8 in takeaways, top 7 in sacks, and top 3 in QB hits.
Seattle averages 235.6 passing yards (9th NFL) while Atlanta is allowing just 210.8 (18th NFL). Against common opponents, both teams sit 3-2, with Atlanta actually performing better defensively, allowing just 14.2 PPG in those matchups compared to Seattle’s 22.4 PPG.
Best Bet: 1.5% Falcons +7 (-110, ProphetX)
It’s tough to back a team losing six of their last seven games and coming off a brutal loss at the Jets, but the Falcons still have five games left and are three games back in the division. Crazier things have happened. There is a world where the Buccaneers and Panthers fall flat the last five weeks, and things are closer come the final week of the season!
With sharp money percentages consistently favoring Atlanta, with multiple buy-back points defending +7 and preventing books from dropping lower. With line value on our side, key matchup advantages on the ground, and a defense that can get to Darnold, the play is Falcons +7, in what should be a one-possession game.
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