NFL Week 16 Predictions: 2 Anytime Touchdown Props for Sunday, December 21

Week 16 is that time of year when the NFL schedule shifts to offer Saturday matchups, and I am here for that! With Christmas on the horizon and teams making their final claims to playoff spots, I have targeted two players on teams that need to keep stacking wins to keep pace. Let’s dive into these picks, and as always, if you are looking to sign up for a new book, check the tab at the top for the best bonus offers in your state!

Lions at Steelers

Detroit’s offense continues to operate as one of the most reliable and efficient units in the NFL, especially when it reaches the red zone. Detroit ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring (30.6/game) and second in redzone efficiency (67.3%). Almost every key metric is in the top 10 for this unit, and this Steelers defense has been known to give up points this season.

On the road this season, the Steelers defense has allowed 22, 28, 25, 33, 14, and 32, four of the six over 25 points. The Lions are very public this week and are looking to bounce back from their 7-point loss at the LA Rams.

With a six-point spread, the highest total on the board (52.5), the team total sitting between 29.5 and 30.5, and the Lions 11-4 in their last 15 games at home, books are expecting at least three if not four touchdowns from the Lions.

I do expect the Lions to move the ball in this game. They rank first in the NFL in yards per play (6.2) while the Steelers rank 16th allowing (5.3). Lions also rank third in passing yards and fifth in rushing yards, while the Steelers rank 6th worst against the pass and are middle of the league against the run. I project a lot of quick passes for the Lions as the Steelers rank fifth in the league in sacks per game (2.9) and fourth in QB hits (6.7).

Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (-108)

This leads me to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and I love his role inside the 10-yard line while also holding the upside and ability to take one to the house with yards after the catch. St. Brown is a fantastic route-runner and is physical. St. Brown has been a volume machine in recent weeks. Before setting a season-high 18 targets last week, his previous eight weeks saw targets of 9,13,12,8,13,10,10,9, excluding the Packers game.

St. Brown is coming off a two-touchdown game, and I like them to build off that momentum as they did earlier this season when St. Brown scored three at home vs Chicago, then proceeded to cash his next two weeks.

St. Brown has not scored at home in three of his last four games, two straight; he may just be due here! Also, take a look at his receiving yards and receptions, as previous alpha number 1 receivers have torched this defense.

Patriots at Ravens (Sunday Night Football)

At +125 or better odds, Mark Andrews has tremendous value at plus money in a primetime matchup where Baltimore is in a must-win situation. In a situation where every game matters to keep division standing and playoff hopes alive; you lean on the veterans to get the job done. There’s no bigger vet on the Raven’s offense than Mark Andrews.

The Patriots should also have their main focus on slowing the rushing attack of the Ravens, which ranks 3rd in the NFL (146.2/game). That should leave some passing opportunities over the middle to the TE position.

New England ranks 21st in NFL vs TE touchdowns, and in his last game against New England he torched them for eight receptions on thirteen targets, 89 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots allowed two touchdowns to Dawson Knox last week.

Over his last four games he has 2,1,4, and 1 reception on 17 total targets, down 1 full reception per game compared to his previous eight games. And while Andrews recent performances may leave you wanting more, I believe there are some underlying metrics we can pull, giving us some upside potential with this play.

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown (+150)

Though Andrews has failed to reach the end zone in recent weeks, he has garnered at least one red zone look in his last five home starts. He is coming off last week where he had three red-zone targets, a stat I am banking on for this week.

Andrews has failed to score a touchdown in four straight weeks overall and six straight games at home. That comes after being Lamar’s go-to at home last season where he scored in five of his nine home games. He has only scored once through eight home games this season.

His chemistry with Jackson is particularly evident inside the 20-yard line, where his size and route routing can create mismatches against linebackers and safeties. Andrews is still second on the team in overall targets at 60(17% target share) and leads the team in red-zone targets with 13(28% target share).

New England’s defense has struggled to contain tight ends this season, allowing the 9th most receiving yards to the TE position. With these odds and a must-win on the line, Andrews has great value to score in week 16!