NFL Week 13, Nov 30th Predictions and Best Bets: Colts and Seahawks Provide Value

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving, but we’re back to business. A lot of divisional matchups on the slate this Sunday, with some more meaningful than others. I’m giving you the games that I’ll most likely be tuning into for some good, end-of-the-weekend action, whether gameline or player prop. Here are my best bets for each of those games.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 PM EST

Current Line: Indianapolis -4.5, o/u 44.5 at BetMGM

I think most of us can agree that the Colts have to be in the running for every “Comeback of the Year” award in the NFL. The organization itself (not sure if that’s a thing), head coach, Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor—you name it. Everything seems to be clicking this season for Indianapolis. Despite fumbling a huge opportunity against the Chiefs last week, the Colts sit in first place in the AFC South at 8-3. The Texans, a bit the opposite—at 6-5—but have been strong lately, coming off a win last Thursday night against Buffalo. Houston’s defense is no joke, and it’ll be interesting to see if Jonathan Taylor can maintain his astonishing season against the 4th-ranked rushing defense in yards given up per game. The Colts are first in rushing touchdowns, points per game (31), and fourth in receiving touchdowns and rushing yards per game. Houston averages 14.7 points per game entering this week, and the Colts’ defense with Sauce now in the secondary, is sure to disrupt whatever Houston plans offensively. I think the Colts will win this game comfortably at home, and I’ll take the points all the way up to -7.5.

Best bet: Colts -4.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks – 4:05 PM EST

Current Line: Seattle -11.5, o/u 41

ELEVEN AND A HALF? Ok, let’s break this down. Yes, Minnesota has been struggling and Seattle has been performing well, but they’ve shown signs of regressing. I could talk about that for a bit, but what I really want to focus on is the over/under of 41. Going back to what I mentioned about one team being underperforming and the other excelling: Minnesota averages 20.4 PPG, and Seattle averages 29.5, which ranks third in the NFL. Meanwhile, Seattle allows 18.8 PPG and Minnesota 23.2. The game is outdoors in Seattle, with both teams combined averaging 50 PPG and giving up 42. Yeah, I’m going with the over.

Best Bet: Over 41

Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders – 8:25 PM EST

Current Line: Denver -5.5, o/u 43.5

If Jayden Daniels were playing, not only do I think this line would be closer, but this game would have real “trap game” potential written all over it. Alas, he is not, and Marcus Mariota is again starting for Washington. Bo Nix has been fun to watch so far this season. Like most QBs in years 1-3, he has his inconsistencies, but any QB whose team is leading their division has to be doing enough right. He’s averaging 220 YPG in the air with 1.6 TDs. I like Denver to win the game, cover the spread, and that over to hit, but that’s not my best bet for this one. I like Bo to cover his over passing TDs in the first half to make the second half much more comfortable to watch.

Best Bet: Bo Nix (DEN) Over 1.5 Passing TDs