2024 NFL MVP Betting Preview: Live Odds and Best Bets

Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson entered the 2023 offseason making headlines for the uncertainty surrounding his contract situation and whether he’d remain a Raven for the long term. The self-represented quarterback did well for himself, agreeing to a $260M offer over five years to stay with the organization that drafted him.

With the off-field distractions removed, Jackson prepared for and executed the best season of his career as a passer while racking up awards. Baltimore finished with the best record in the NFL as Jackson set career highs in passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. He also led the NFL in rushing average and was named MVP with 49 of 50 first-place votes, in addition to being a First-Team All-Pro and making his third Pro Bowl.

A massive late-season matchup between the Ravens and 49ers was the defining game in the MVP race. Jackson faced off against Brock Purdy and the streaking Niners, who were among the Super Bowl favorites. Jackson racked up nearly 300 yards of offense and threw two touchdowns, while Purdy faltered with four interceptions during a big road win for Baltimore that all but locked up Jackson’s second MVP honors.

The avid readers of our NFL content were ahead of this by a mile. When we released our MVP best bets last season, Jackson was between +1500 and +1700 to win the MVP. By the time we updated the piece for the final time in the 2023 season, the Ravens’ quarterback was -20000.

2024 MVP Front-Runners

The oddsmakers continue to favor the same players who were high on the board last summer. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow have had their names among the top four on MVP odds lists for two straight offseasons.

Mahomes and Allen finished 7th and 5th, respectively, during regular seasons where both threw more interceptions than usual. Burrow missed seven games due to injury and will look to put together a healthy training camp before competing with Baltimore for the AFC North crown.

In the last two seasons, that trio has been accompanied by a young, big-armed passer among the MVP favorites. In 2023, that name was Justin Herbert, who dealt with nagging injuries and did not factor into the MVP discussion at season’s end.

This year, reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud is the upstart challenger to the quarterback establishment. Stroud finished his rookie campaign with the lowest interception rate and most passing yards per game among all eligible signal-callers, leading Houston to the AFC South title and capping off a stellar season with a playoff victory in the Wild Card round.

Stroud’s receiving corps of Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell to go along with Dalton Schultz at tight end and Joe Mixon in the backfield form an offense that could lead Houston to team success and Stroud to individual accolades.

Strong Contenders Looking to Break Through

Green Bay’s Jordan Love experienced his NFL breakout in 2023, much to the chagrin of any team that can’t seem to find a quarterback while the Packers have needed just three in 30+ seasons. Love finished 2nd in the league in touchdown passes and seventh in passing yards before leading Green Bay to a playoff romp over the Cowboys in Dallas during the Wild Card round. He’ll look to take the next step in his development this fall.

A talented group of quarterbacks that includes reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, who leads the NFL in rushing TDs since 2022, and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy are in a crowded midfield on the odds board. All three of their teams rank in the top six in Super Bowl odds and each QB will have several opportunities to perform in the spotlight of high-stakes games this year.

Within striking distance of that group is another pack comprised of players like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Aaron Rodgers. Prescott led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes a season ago, while Tagovailoa threw for an NFL-best 4,624 yards in a loaded Miami offense.

Goff guided a prolific offense of his own in Detroit, finishing with the second-most passing yards and fourth-most touchdown passes during the Lions’ incredible run to the NFC Championship Game. For Herbert and Rodgers, entering this season fully healthy is the main goal in the short term.

Long Shots and Non-Quarterbacks

Christian McCaffrey took home NFL Offensive Player of the Year last season and represents the best chance for a non-QB to win the MVP, according to oddsmakers. His first full season in San Francisco was a monster one statistically, as CMac led the NFL in rushing yards, scrimmage yards, and combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. As long as the Niners can get Trent Williams back into the fold this season, McCaffrey has a chance to improve on his third-place MVP finish in 2023.

Tyreek Hill led the NFL in receiving with nearly 1,800 yards and 13 touchdowns and was on pace for a 2,000-yard season through 12 games before injuries caught up with him. After Tagovailoa signed an extension to stay in Miami, that duo will return to put up more gaudy numbers in 2024.

Another receiver who dealt with injuries last year was Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson. The 2022 OPOY missed seven games and had to put up with substitute quarterbacks for half the games in which he was on the field after Kirk Cousins’ season-ending Achilles tear. Hill and Ceedee Lamb put up video game numbers while Jefferson was sidelined, and that surely doesn’t sit well with the player who hauled in the sixth-most receiving yards in a single season during that magical 2022 stretch.

Best Bets to Win 2024-25 NFL MVP

It may be early, but we've already isolated 3 players that we want to add to our NFL MVP portfolio for next season. We've selected one favorite, one mid-range bet, and one longshot bet below.

Patrick Mahomes +500 (FanDuel)

Mahomes played behind an offensive line that ranked 1st in pass block win rate in 2023, keeping rushers at bay 77% of the time to lead the NFL by a healthy margin. Kansas City spent its top draft picks on a shifty wide receiver in Xavier Worthy and signed Marquise Brown to ensure Mahomes has more skill-position talent around him after a down year, statistically speaking.
KC is one of two teams with a win total of 11.5, and another strong finish for the Chiefs will likely contribute to yet another high-MVP finish for Mahomes.

CJ Stroud +1000 (FanDuel)

The addition of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon are two more lethal arrows in the quiver for Stroud to leverage against what figures to be a more difficult schedule for the Texans in 2024. Houston’s list of opponents is tied with Green Bay’s for the fourth-best combined record from last season, and everyone expects them to contend after catching some by surprise in Stroud’s rookie year. Thanks to over $100M in offseason spending, a bolstered defense will contribute to Houston’s division title defense and support their QB’s quest for an MVP.

Justin Jefferson +10000

It’s not unfathomable that Jefferson could see 200+ targets if he stays healthy for the duration of the 2024 season. With a new starting quarterback in Minneapolis, it’s likely that the media views Jefferson as the main reason for any offensive success the team achieves. We see that as a great opportunity for a player looking to return to form after dealing with a tough injury last year and love his value this far down the odds list. We’re locking in Jefferson as our MVP sleeper for 2024.

NFL MVP FAQ

Did you know that the NFL MVP award has been handed out almost every year since 1938? For the answers to more intriguing questions, check out the following FAQ section about the NFL MVP. It's one of the most prestigious awards in all of sports.

Who won the first-ever NFL MVP award?

Mel Hein was an American football player who played center for the New York Giants from 1931 to 1945. He is widely regarded as one of the greatest centers in NFL history and was the first player in NFL history to win the league's MVP award in 1938. Hein was also a nine-time Pro Bowl selection and was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 1963.

What NFL player has won the most MVP awards?

The NFL player who has won the most MVP (Most Valuable Player) awards is Peyton Manning. He won the award a total of five times during his career, in 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, and 2013.

Why are there multiple NFL MVP awards given each year?

There are multiple NFL MVP (Most Valuable Player) awards given each year because different organizations and publications have their own versions of the award. The most prestigious and widely recognized NFL MVP award is the one given by the Associated Press (AP), which is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters at the end of the regular season. However, there are also other MVP awards given out by organizations such as the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA), the Sporting News, and the Maxwell Football Club. While the criteria for each award may vary slightly, they all recognize the best player in the NFL for that particular season.

How many times has a quarterback won the NFL MVP award?

Quarterbacks have won the NFL MVP (Most Valuable Player) award more times than any other position, and it is not even close. As of the end of the 2021 NFL season, quarterbacks have won the award 45 times, with running backs coming in a distant second with just 20 wins. Wide receivers, linebackers, and defensive tackles are the only other positions to have won the award more than once, with two wins apiece.

Do players get a bonus for winning the NFL MVP award?

Winning the NFL MVP (Most Valuable Player) award does not come with a specific bonus from the NFL, as the award is given out by the Associated Press (AP) and other organizations rather than the league itself. However, many players have bonuses built into their contracts that are triggered by winning individual awards such as the MVP. These bonuses vary depending on the player and the specifics of their contract, but they can be significant amounts of money. For example, some contracts might offer a bonus of a few hundred thousand dollars for winning the MVP, while others might offer several million dollars.