Falcons vs Buccaneers: Predictions and Top Player Prop for Thursday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons will head south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to kick off NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football. The Bucs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints last week, but they’re still tied with the Panthers for the NFC South division lead. The Falcons have no hope of a playoff berth and got shellacked last week by the Seahawks.

How will this one play out? We’ll dive into which team has the edge in each statistical category. Get our predictions and best player prop below. Best of luck, sports betting family.

Sunday, September 13 at 1:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Atlanta Falcons	+3 (-118)	+145	O 42.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers	-3 (-120)	-146	U 41.5 (-115)

Opening Odds for Atlanta vs Tampa Bay

Oddsmakers are making the Bucs a moderate favorite in this game, as the opening line priced the team Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point favorite. Some money has shown up for Atlanta, so the price now sits at Tampa Bay-4.5 at most online sportsbooks. Be sure to shop around for the best price.

The books are expecting a lower-than-normal amount of scoring in this divisional rivalry. The opening total was 47.5, but a large appetite for the Under has pushed the line to 44 at some shops as of Thursday morning. BetMGM currently has the best juice on the Over 44 at -110.

Will the Falcons Quit or Show Some Fight?

Atlanta hung in there pretty well in the first half last week against Seattle, but things really fell apart once the Seahawks woke up in the second stanza. The Falcons gave up 17 points in the third quarter after being tied at the half. Here’s a big newsflash for you: giving up a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown is NOT the way to come out of the locker room.

Journeyman QB Kirk Cousins showed his age by throwing for just 162 yards and two costly interceptions. Kyle Pitts had a decent game (6 receptions for 90 yards) but is listed as questionable to play on Thursday with a knee injury. With Pitts banged up and star WR Drake London out, look for Atlanta to give Bijan Robinson plenty of touches.

Will the Bucs Finally Get Right at Home in Primetime?

Tampa Bay should still win the NFC South, but man oh man, they’ve been struggling mightily of late. After a hot start to the year, the Bucs have now lost 4 of their last 5 games. They sit at 7-6, and need to figure some things out quickly if they want to make a run.

Thankfully for Bucs fans, the team just activated both Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan for the IR. Getting those speedy wideouts back would be a huge help to the offense, but both are still listed as questionable to play. Tampa Bay also got Bucky Irving back from injury a couple of weeks ago, and that leads us to our favorite player prop of the evening…

Best Player Prop: Bucky Irving 3+ Receptions (-125) (Bet365)

We’re getting a ton of value on this receptions prop over at Bet365. If you don’t have access to them in your state, I’m fine with laying the -130 price over at BetMGM. Most sportsbooks in the market are pricing this in the -150 to -155 range, so we’re getting a deep discount.

Line value isn’t the only reason I like Irving to get 3 or more catches tonight. The play makes sense from a handicapping perspective as well because Atlanta ranks 3rd in the league in sack rate. That means Baker Mayfield is going to have to get the ball out early. I could see the Bucs calling lots of screens and swing passes to avoid the Falcons’ pass rush.

Irving hasn’t gone over this line since coming back from injury two weeks ago, but I’m betting his snap share is going to increase quite a bit in this ‘gotta have it’ divisional game for Tampa Bay. Let’s play the Over 2.5 in this spot. Good luck, my friends. Let’s cash!