After gobbling down this year’s Thanksgiving Day feast, NFL fans will have a treat on Thursday night as the Miami Dolphins (5-6) travel north to face the Green Bay Packers (8-3) to cap off a wild day of football.
Miami is a different team now that Tua Tagovailoa has returned. After dropping his first two games following his concussion, the quarterback has piloted the Dolphins to three straight wins as he’s thrown for 605 yards and seven touchdowns in the past two outings.
Green Bay has won six of their past seven games, including impressive wins over Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers during that stretch. The Packers have won their games in a variety of ways, coupling strong defensive showings with a balanced offensive attack this season.
Can the Dolphins up their Thanksgiving Day record to 6-2 with a win Thursday night, or will Green Bay hold strong at Lambeau Field? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for Thursday’s primetime finale.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Over 251.5 Pass Yards | |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Under 251.5 Pass Yards | |
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 242.5 Passing Yards
The Dolphins look like a different team with Tua Tagovailoa under center. In their last five outings, the team has scored 29 points per outing. Without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins averaged just over 11 points in their four previous contests.
While the quarterback has been on a tear over his past two games, Miami’s competition – New England and Las Vegas – is suspect. It’s hard to expect that the Dolphins’ signal-caller will continue his run against a strong defensive team like Green Bay, and bettors should take the under on this prop wager.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Josh Jacobs | Over 68.5 Rush Yards | |
| Josh Jacobs | Under 71.5 Rush Yards | |
Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs OVER 71.5 Rushing Yards
Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs is having a strong season for the Packers. He’s fourth in total carries (202) and third in rushing yards (944) heading into his team’s matchup against the Dolphins on Thanksgiving night.
There’s strong evidence to suggest the Dolphins are up to the challenge of stopping Jacobs. Since their bye week, the Dolphins have held every running back they’ve faced to less than 70 rushing yards. Bettors should favor the Packers’ running back in this matchup, expecting him to at least finish with 72 yards against Miami on Thursday night.
| Player | Prop | Price |
|---|
| Tyreek Hill | Over 62.5 Reception Yards | |
| Tyreek Hill | Under 63.5 Reception Yards | |
Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill OVER 62.5 Passing Yards
Despite turning 30 years old in 2024, Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill continues to be among the league’s best athletes. The 5-foot-10 speedster is in the top 33 receivers in the league in receptions (49) and receiving yards (571) this season.
He’s had an up-and-down year, however. The Dolphins’ star has finished seven of his 11 contests with less than 62 receiving yards, including his past three outings. He’s due for a breakout against Green Bay, and bettors should take the over on this player prop bet.
Best Bet: Green Bay (-3.5)
The Packers are rolling right now, and their 38-10 victory over a solid – if inconsistent – San Francisco 49ers’ squad is further proof of that. Green Bay’s success in the NFC is overshadowed by their NFC North counterparts – Minnesota and Detroit – as each team is having significant success this season.
Meanwhile, Miami has been abysmal in cold-weather contests. They’re 3-7 all-time in games where the temperature is 23 degrees or colder, and their last win came in 2008 in this situation. Although the forecast is not calling for such a dramatically cold night, expect the Packers to prevail in this game by at least a touchdown or more on Thursday night.
