Cowboys vs Commanders: Best Player Prop Prediction for Christmas Day

Christmas Day football is always a great time to gather the family around the Christmas tree and enjoy some pigskin. This season, however, we were handed a lump of coal for the Thursday games.

We have the potential to start three 3rd string quarterbacks, and all three games are -7 spread or higher. Even with the tough slate to dig through, we still believe we found a solid angle to attack here.

George Pickens & Dak Prescott’s Chemistry

Pickens has scored 8 touchdowns in 15 games this season, including 4 scores in 7 road games, showing he’s not dependent on home-field conditions to find the end zone. While he did not score in his most recent road game against Detroit, his season-long scoring data shows a clear pattern; when Pickens scores, he often does it in bunches.

Earlier this year, he scored in five straight games, followed by short droughts before quickly re-emerging. He scored again last week, putting him in position to go back-to-back weeks, something he has already done multiple times this season.

Pickens History vs Washington

This matchup also sets up well historically. Pickens did not score against Washington last season, but in his only career game in Washington, he posted five receptions for 91 yards and a touchdown, proving he can win against this secondary. He also put up 82 yards on four receptions in game 1 vs Washington this season.

Washington’s home defensive numbers only strengthen the case. They have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers at home this season, including three to Detroit and four to Seattle, two teams with explosive downfield passing games. Dallas fits that same mold.

Dallas Offense vs Washington Defense

Washington’s overall defense remains a major concern. They allow the 7th most touchdowns per game (3.1) and rank 10th worst in wide receiver touchdowns allowed per game (1.1). They also give up the 7th most passing yards and the 3rd most rushing yards this season, a combination that puts constant stress on their red zone defense. Once opponents reach the 20-yard line, Washington struggles to hold them to zero points, ranking 4th worst in red zone efficiency allowed.

Dallas’ offense is built to exploit those weaknesses. They rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards, 4th in yards per play, 2nd in first downs, and 8th in third-down conversion rate. With a 60% pass rate, opportunities should be there, especially for the team’s top perimeter weapon.

Pickens leads the team with 129 targets, accounting for a 23.5% target share, and sits just one target behind the team lead in red zone looks with 19 red zone targets (20% share). If you are not a fan of the volatile anytime TD props, I love Pickens over 78.5 Rec Yards for (-110).

With volume, red zone usage, and a defense that consistently allows wide receiver touchdowns, George Pickens Anytime Touchdown at +131 stands out as a strong Christmas Day prop!

Best Bet: George Pickens Anytime Touchdown (+131, novig)