Yankees-Padres Same Game Parlay: Cole, King Strikeout Props Highlight Sunday’s Finale

The Yankees and Padres wrap up their three-game set at Petco Park on Sunday with the series knotted at 1-1, and the finale brings a genuine pitching duel: Gerrit Cole against Michael King, two names that used to share a Bronx clubhouse before King landed in San Diego. First pitch is 4:10 p.m. ET, and with New York (81-61) still fighting for playoff positioning in the AL East while the Padres (74-68) play out the string at home, this one has the makings of a tight, low-scoring afternoon that’s tailor-made for a same game parlay.

Books have the total sitting at 7 runs with the moneyline nearly a coin flip — Yankees -110, Padres -106 in most spots, with the Yankees favored by a hair despite playing on the road. That kind of number tells you oddsmakers see two frontline arms neutralizing each other, which is exactly the environment where a well-built strikeout-and-total-bases parlay can hunt for real value.

Gerrit Cole to Miss Enough Bats

Cole comes in at 8-7 with a 3.29 ERA and 110 strikeouts across 104 innings, and the strikeout market has him set at 5.5 with the over priced around +111. That plus-money number on a pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff is the kind of price that stands out immediately on a board full of short-priced favorites. Cole’s stuff hasn’t wavered — his fastball still sits in the upper 90s and the slider remains a putaway pitch against right-handed bats, and San Diego’s lineup strikes out at a solid clip even with Manny Machado anchoring the middle of the order.

The outs-recorded market backs this up too: Cole is priced at -160 to go over 17.5 outs, meaning the market expects him to work deep into this game rather than get chased early. When a pitcher is favored to pitch six-plus innings AND is plus money to clear his strikeout total, that’s a signal worth building around.

Michael King Keeps It Rolling at Home

King has quietly been one of the better mid-rotation arms in the league this year — 9-9, a 3.11 ERA, and 141 strikeouts over 162 innings, numbers that would headline plenty of rotations. His strikeout line sits at 5.5 as well, but the market leans under here at -106, a mild but notable contrast to how it’s pricing Cole. King has been death on right-handed bats all year, and with the Yankees still adjusting their lineup around Aaron Judge’s absence — he’s out on the 60-day injured list with an expected return around September 11 — New York’s order isn’t running its full-strength look in this one. That subtraction matters when projecting total offense from the Yankees’ side, and it’s part of why King’s under looks like live value even on the road-favorite pitcher’s own turf.

Manny Machado Stays Quiet Against a Tough Righty

Machado is hitting .220 with 24 home runs and a .402 slugging mark on the year, and his total bases prop has been sitting around 1.5 with pricing that’s flipped depending on matchup — but against a pitcher of Cole’s caliber, the recent trend is clear. Machado went under his total bases number in four of his last six games listed, including a 1-for-4 with zero extra bases just two nights ago in this very series. Cole’s ability to attack hitters up and away has given right-handed power bats trouble all season, and Petco Park’s spacious dimensions in right-center only compound the issue for a pull-conscious hitter like Machado. The under on his total bases (1.5) lines up as the connective piece between the two strikeout legs — quiet performances from both offenses is the whole premise of this parlay.

The Full Parlay

Stack these three together and you get a same game parlay that leans entirely on this being a pitcher’s ballgame: Gerrit Cole over 5.5 strikeouts (+111), Michael King under 5.5 strikeouts (-106), and Manny Machado under 1.5 total bases. Each leg supports the others — if both pitchers are working efficiently and missing bats, offense stays limited across the board, which is exactly the game script this slate is set up for. Check your DraftKings promo code or preferred book for the latest same game parlay pricing before locking anything in, since props can shift closer to first pitch. With the total sitting at just 7 runs and two pitchers this sharp on the mound, betting on a quiet afternoon at Petco feels like the right side to be on.