The Minnesota Twins will head west to take on the San Francisco Giants in a 3-game series that starts on Friday, July 12. The Twins are now 53-40 on the season after winning 7 of their last 10 games. The G-Men are just 45-49, but they've played much better at home so far (26-21).
Find out who has the upper hand in this interleague matchup by diving into our betting preview. Hopefully we can add a winner to the ledger before getting a few days off for the All-Star break. Good luck and enjoy your weekend!
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
Faithful readers of my column know that I'm a big fan of the Twins starting rotation. I think Joe Ryan is one of the top pitchers in the AL and he gives Minny a huge edge in Game 1 of this series against Kyle Harrison. Hitters have an expected batting average of just .219 against Ryan this season.
Game 2 is kind of a toss-up as far as the starters are concerned. Two youngsters will square off as Simeon Woods Richardson (the law firm) takes on Hayden Birdsong. Woods Richardson has a knack for getting weak contact and he doesn't walk a lot of guys. Birdsong has potential, but he could struggle against this powerful Minny lineup in what'll be just his 4th MLB start.
Some may disagree, but I have Minny with the edge in Game 3. Yes, I know that Blake Snell won the Cy Young last year, but he's been dogged with injuries for most of this season. I actually trust Chris Paddack more than Snell at this point, just because of Snell's terribly high walk rate.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both of these teams have solid bullpens, but I give Minnesota the slight nod in this category. The Twinkies have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to relievers. Guys like Griffin Jax, Jorge Alcala, and Jhoan Duran all have fantastic stuff.
San Fran has a solid bullpen in their own right, but I rank them as the 7th best in baseball, which is 3 slots behind Minny. Even still, guys like Ryan Walker and Taylor Rogers provide solid options for the G-Men if their starters don't perform well.
Lineup Breakdown
Here's where I think the Twins have the biggest advantage. Their lineup is stacked from top to bottom with dangerous hitters. Guys like Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa, and Jose Miranda have been knocking the cover off the ball all year long.
San Fran has a few solid guys in their order, so the Minnesota pitchers better not be thinking about their All-Star break trips to Mexico. Heliot Ramos and Michael Conforto provide plenty of punch and Jorge Soler is always a threat to go deep.
All in all, though, Minnesota crushes San Fran from a WRC+ standpoint. The Twins rank 4th in that ever-important category, while the G-Men are currently sitting in 12th. Minnesota is also batting .297 and scoring 6.2 runs per game over their last 10 outings!
Best Series Bet: Twins -105 (DraftKings)
This line makes no sense and I about fell out of my chair when I saw it posted on DraftKings on Friday morning! I have the Twins rated as the 7th best team in baseball, so there is quite a bit of value to be had at almost a pick'em price for the series.
Minnesota is trying to put some pressure on Cleveland for the AL Central race, so they'll be supremely focused. The Giants aren't a bad baseball team, and their lineup has some dangerous bats. That being said, I just don't think San Fran has the pitching to be a contender this season.
My numbers say that Minnesota should be priced at around a -140 favorite, even though they're on the road. Let's play the Twinkies to win at least 2 of 3 to close out the first half of the MLB season. Enjoy the Derby and the All-Star Game next week!
