Welcome back baseball fans! I hope everyone enjoyed the break and MLB All-Star week! Our premium members were lucky enough to make some money on the Home Run Derby!
I cannot be more excited for the second half of the season to get under way! We have a lot of good matchups in today’s slate so let's get right to it!
Live player props data coming soon for Hunter Brown.
Can Mariners Bats Get to Brown?
Hunter Brown has been on a roll in his L10 games hitting 18 outs in every game, while hitting 5 straight on road. He started this run going 18 at Seattle where he is again in tonight's last game on the slate. In those 10 games, since May 21, he holds a 2.36 ERA, allowing opposing hitters to hit .208, in 61 innings of work!
Seattle has struggled all season long against right-handed pitching. Over L30 days they are batting .191 at home vs right hand pitching, while ranking bottom 8 all season and L30 days in wRC+ and OB%.
They have the highest K rate in baseball while Brown holds a 26.3% K rate over those last 10 games. He's had a little break, let's see if that did him any good or got him out of rhythm.
This Underdog 2-Man Will Cash!
We have been taking advantage of the FREE Squares that Underdog gives out every other day or two. Today they have another FREE Square with Ketel Marte 0.5 Plate Appearances and we have found a nice piece to go with it!
Nathan Eovaldi vs Baltimore Orioles
Nathan Eovaldi has been pitching very well over his last 10 games and I have been very impressed with his form all season. Having said that, he does draw a potentially tough matchup with the Orioles today. Baltimore has been on fire most of the season and one of the tougher teams to strike out.
For the season, the Orioles rank 8th lowest K rate to RHP (20.5%), and over their last 30 days have been even better, ranking 6th lowest rate (19.6%). Now we don’t technically look at full team K rates when taking these props, I look at the top 5 bats just in case a hitter or two gets on and we get past the top 3. Vs RHP, the top 5 hitters K rates are as follows: 21.5%, 19%, 16,9%, 10.6% and 19.7%.
Digging just a little deeper into this, over Eovaldi’s last 8 games at home, he does not have 2 Ks in the 1st inning in any of those, going 8/8 to the under. Another factor in this is Baltimore in 12 games through July has only struck out twice in the first inning 2 games, going under in 10/12. On the road though, they have gone all 6 road games in July without 2 strikeouts in the 1st inning.
My Best Bets
Hunter Brown o17.5 Outs (-110) Bet365
Underdog 2-Man (1.95X or -105 Payout):
Ketel Marte Higher 0.5 Plate Appearances (FREE)
Nathan Eovaldi Lower 1.5 1st Inning Ks (vs Baltimore)
