Reds vs. Dodgers Prediction: Can Cincinnati Avoid a Series Sweep in LA?

The Los Angeles Dodgers close out a three-game set with the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, and the defending champs have already taken care of business twice. LA beat Cincinnati 6-3 on Monday and 3-2 on Tuesday, pushing its winning streak to six games and keeping the pressure on Milwaukee in the race for the best record in baseball. The Dodgers sit at 88-57, a half-game behind the Brewers, while the Reds have fallen to 69-76 and are essentially playing out the string, sitting 8.5 games back in the NL Central and 7 games out of a wild-card spot with roughly three weeks left in the season.

Cincinnati isn’t dead in the water by any means — the Reds had won series against Milwaukee and San Diego just before this trip to Los Angeles, with Elly De La Cruz putting together one of the hotter stretches of his season. But two straight losses have reset the tone of this series, and now Rhett Lowder gets the ball trying to prevent a sweep against a Dodgers lineup that’s been relentless of late.

Why the Market Isn’t Giving Cincinnati Much Hope

The odds reflect exactly what’s played out the first two nights of this series. Los Angeles opened as roughly a -295 favorite on the moneyline, with Cincinnati sitting out at +240. The run line has the Dodgers at -1.5 (-134) and the Reds at +1.5 (+112), while the total sits at 8.5, with the under drawing slightly more support at -104 to -106.

That gap is almost entirely about who’s on the mound. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been arguably the best pitcher in the National League over the second half, sitting at 12-8 with a 2.67 ERA and 161 strikeouts across 165 innings, and he’s been especially dangerous on the road, holding hitters to a sub-.200 average away from Dodger Stadium this season. Lowder, by contrast, enters at 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA, and Cincinnati’s staff has allowed the second-most runs in the National League this year. Bettors weighing a pitching mismatch like this one can lean on our MLB betting guide for how to size a play against such lopsided starting pitching splits.

The Matchup Beyond the Pitching Mismatch

Yamamoto’s fastball still sits in the mid-90s, but it’s the splitter and curveball combination that’s given hitters fits all season — his whiff rate is up compared to last year, and he’s cut his walk rate down to one of the best marks among NL starters. He’s coming off a rough final line against St. Louis last time out, allowing four runs in seven innings, but he bounced back from similar outings all year and has been especially sharp when pitching on regular rest, which he’ll be doing here.

Cincinnati’s lineup isn’t without pop. Elly De La Cruz has 24 home runs and is coming off a monster series against Milwaukee where he went 10-for-22 with two homers and six RBIs over his last two series combined, spending time at designated hitter to keep him fresh. Sal Stewart has quietly put together a 31-homer season, and Tyler Stephenson adds another power bat in the middle of the order. The problem is depth — behind that trio, the Reds’ lineup gets thin fast, with Jose Trevino batting seventh and hitting just .231 on the year, and Matt McLain still working his way back to form at the bottom of the order.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are humming on both sides. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández give Los Angeles three legitimate middle-of-the-order threats, and Tommy Edman has been steady atop the lineup all year. The Dodgers have scored 714 runs as a team, tops in the National League, and their bullpen has been lights-out during this current six-game winning streak, limiting Cincinnati to a combined five runs over the first two games of this series.

Cincinnati still has things to play for individually — De La Cruz is chasing a 25-homer, 25-steal type season, and Lowder is trying to prove he belongs in next year’s rotation plans — but as a team, there’s little urgency behind trying to salvage this series finale against the National League’s hottest club.

Prediction and Best Bet

Yamamoto’s recent road dominance combined with Cincinnati’s offensive inconsistency against elite pitching points toward another long night for the Reds. Los Angeles has scored at least three runs in each of the first two games of this series and shouldn’t have much trouble doing so again against a shaky Lowder outing, while Yamamoto keeps Cincinnati’s lineup largely in check outside of a De La Cruz swing or two.

• Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, Cincinnati Reds 2
• Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 on the run line

With Yamamoto locked in and Cincinnati’s bats overmatched the first two nights of this series, the safer number play is the Dodgers covering the run line rather than needing to lay the heavy juice on the moneyline alone.