The Boston Red Sox hit the highway on Friday, July 5th to take on their archrival New York Yankees in what should be one heck of a series. Boston comes in riding a 4-game winning streak and they'll be looking to keep that positive momentum going. New York has been in a major funk of late, as they were just swept by the Cincinnati Reds.
Get ready for this weekend's AL East rivalry by checking out our betting preview below. We'll discuss who has the edge and give out our top series bet. Best of luck and enjoy the action!
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
To kick things off, let's look at the starting pitching matchups for each game in this series. In Game 1, we have Tanner Houck of the BoSox taking on Nestor Cortes of the Yanks. Both of these guys have similar strikeout and walk rates, but Houck has a significant edge in the ground ball department.
Houck's ground ball rate puts him in the 92nd percentile, mainly thanks to his sinker and splitter. That will come in handy in a hitter's park like Yankee Stadium. What's Cortes's ground ball rate? It's one of the highest in MLB at 31.6% (7th percentile). That's a nice advantage for Boston in Game 1.
Obviously, in Game 2 we'd have to give the edge to New York. Reigning Cy Young winner Gerritt Cole will get the ball to face Josh Winckowski. The bad news for Yanks fans is that Cole hasn't found his footing yet since coming back from injury. His ERA is sitting at 6.23 and he's been struggling with his command.
Here's a hot take for you: I'd rather have Kutter Crawford instead of Luis Gil in Game 3. Crawford has been super steady all year long for Boston, while Gil has looked terrible over his last 3 starts. The rookie has given up 16 earned runs during that span. All in all, we'll give Boston a 2-1 edge in the SP department.
Bullpen Breakdown
Here is where Boston should have another solid advantage. The Red Sox bullpen ranks 9th in the ever-so-important K-BB rate. The Yankee relievers only rank 22nd. Red Sox relievers Zack Kelly and Brennan Bernardino have done a fantastic job for Alex Cora this season.
Boston also has significant edges in xFIP and SIERA. The Red Sox rank 6th and 8th in those categories. New York ranks 22nd in both of those, respectively. Yankees closer Clay Holmes has great stuff, but he's already blown 4 saves this season. That shouldn't exactly give Aaron Boone the warm and fuzzies!
I look for New York to make some moves at the trade deadline to shore up their bullpen, but right now, I'll give the nod to the BoSox. It also helps that Boston closer Kenley Jansen looks more like his old dominant self, as he's converted 16 of his 17 save opportunities in 2024.
Lineup Breakdown
When comparing the 2 offenses, we see that New York should have the upper hand in that aspect. The bottom of the Yanks lineup isn't all that great, but Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is the best 1-2 punch in MLB. The only problem is that the Yankees are only hitting .221 over their last 5 games and scoring just 4.2 runs per outing.
Boston's lineup doesn't have a ton of star power like New York's, but this offense has been clicking lately. Rafael Devers is hitting .378 over his last 10 games and needs just one more hit to reach 1,000 for his career. Jarren Duran and Tyler O'Neill have also been bright spots for the BoSox this year.
Will the Yanks bats wake up in this series? It's possible, but the going could be tough for them, especially in Games 1 and 3 against Houck and Crawford.
Best Series Bet: Red Sox +175 (DraftKings)
Yes, I know that the Yankees are the better overall team, but baseball is a funny game. Even the best teams in the game can suffer from some major cold streaks, and we're seeing that on fully display with this New York squad. Boston, on the other hand, has been hotter than blue blazes!
The Red Sox have won 12 of their last 16 ball games, and they're showing no signs of slowing down. Boston's offense has been on fire of late, as they're averaging 5.4 runs per game over their last 16 outings. When I look at the current form of both of these clubs, I make this number Red Sox +110 instead of +175.
New York has the better offense, but I think Boston has some nice edges with their starting pitching and their bullpen. Give me the BoSox at the nice underdog price for a half-unit play. Enjoy the series, folks!
