Welcome to the Thursday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Brewers vs. the Cubs and the Mets vs. the Braves.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on the Phillies vs. Marlins tilt at 6:40 PM Eastern Time. Let's take a closer look at the starting pitchers and lineups before giving out our best bet for June 19th. Best of luck, compadres.
Opening Odds for Phillies vs. Marlins
Oddsmakers are favoring Philadelphia by quite a bit in this matchup, as the opening line priced the Phillies as a -162 favorite on the road in Miami. A little bit of money has shown up for the home team, so the price now sits in the -165 to -182 range in favor of the Fightin' Phils.
Judging by the run total, sportsbooks are expecting a low amount of scoring in this one. The number opened at 7.5 runs, with the juice on the Under in the -105 to -110 range. The total makes a lot of sense because both of these starting pitchers have above-average stuff.
Will Sanchez Continue His Stellar Run?
I've been a big believer in Cristopher Sanchez since Philly called him up from the minors about five years ago. The 28-year-old gets lost in the Philadelphia shuffle of Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez, but he's a top-tier starter in his own right. Sanchez has one of the best sinkers in the league and his changeup is also pretty nasty.
Just how good has Sanchez been? His whiff rate ranks in the 78th percentile, and he induces a ton of ground balls. Sanchez's K-rate has also improved tremendously, as he's currently sitting at 26.3% after being at just 20.3% a season ago.
The Marlins hit southpaws decently, but I highly doubt they'll get more than a run or two off of Sanchez. My numbers project six or seven strong innings from Sanchez in this one, and that'll go a long way towards us cashing an Under.
Cabrera is Better than People Think
Edward Cabrera doesn't get a lot of credit because he plays for the Marlins, but he's been a pretty reliable starter for them this season. The 27-year-old righty has some filthy breaking stuff, and I think he'll use that to hold the Phillies down for at least five innings at home.
Cabrera hits 97 mph with his fastball regularly and both his K-rate and whiff rate are pretty solid. The Phillies offense scares me a little, but they rank just 18th in WRC+ over the last 14 days. The Marlins bullpen is terrible, but I'm hoping a decent outing from Cabrera will limit how much they have to do.
Best Bet: Under 8 (-128) (DraftKings)
The early weather reports from Miami say that the wind should be blowing in during a large portion of this game. That makes me like this play even more. I don't base any of my plays solely on the weather report, but it never hurts to have that in your favor.
These two teams combine to score 8.2 runs per game, if you adjust for home and away splits. However, I adjusted that down to a projection of 6.5 because of how highly I rate these two starters. Give me the Under on Thursday night in South Beach.
Note: I ended up buying the hook to get to 8, but still like it at Under 7.5 for +100 over at Caesars as well.
