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Severino has been very good this season! In fact, through 13 starts, he holds a 1.18 WHIP, .218 BAA, and a 3.12 ERA, holding 8 of his 13 opponents under 2 runs per game, 7 of those under 1! Today he lines up vs the Texas Rangers, who have been one of the worst hitting teams vs RHP for the entire season, and especially the last 15 to 30 days.
On the road, Sevy has been under this line in 8 of his last 10 starts, and actually gave up 7 on the road in his last start at Washington. This gives us a good spot for him to find another quality start on the road. Minus a 10-hit outing vs Baltimore last July, he is averaging under 5 hits per game over his last 9 road starts.
Over those last 15-30 days vs RHP, the Rangers rank dead last, or 2nd to last, in AVG, OB%, SLG, wRC+, and BABIP, so even when they do hit the ball, they are not doing much with it! Against Severino, Rangers have 6 bats hitting under .215 against him, and 5 hitting under .250 vs RHP this season. He faced Rangers in 2023 and 2022, allowing 5 and 0 hits in over 90+ pitches in each outing.
Chris Bassitt has walked 1+ batters in 25 of his last 30 starts, and 28 of his last 30 starts at home! Against the Red Sox, both home and away last season he walked 3 in each game. Bassitt currently sits in the 16th percentile averaging a 9.4 walk rate and averaging 3.7 walks per 9 innings.
The Red Sox are no stranger to walking either, ranking 7th over the last 30 days vs RHP, walking at a 9.2% rate. The Red Sox have walked at least 1 time in 22 of their last 25 games on the road vs RHP, hitting 7 straight games on road.
Bassitt could easily be a target for 2+ walks today around -130, but I have loved these 1+ ALT Walk lines DraftKings has been offering to limit the risk as these pitchers will not walk 2 every game! Let's take advantage of these lines while they last!
My Best Bet:
2-Leg(-109) DraftKings
Luis Severino (NYM) U6.5 Hits Allowed
Chris Bassitt (Tor) 1+ Walks
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TopFlightPicks has several years of experience in the sports betting industry and currently operates their own handicapping business. They're successful in all sports but specializes in UFC and Golf for EatWatchBet. Find them on X @_TopFlightPicks