There is nothing like Friday baseball with a slate full of solid pitchers and aces! We have very good matchups all across the board today and I found 2 players I am confident in today that we target routinely.
Live player props data coming soon for Zack Littell.
Zack Littell is the New George Kirby
For those that know, George Kirby is probably the top pitcher over the last few seasons to have the lowest walk rate in baseball. We cashed almost every start of his last season u1.5, but since this season books have given us 1.5, 2 times. That is where Zack Littell stepped in. Littell has been impressive since last year when he burst onto the season as a starter.
Over his last 30 appearances he is under this in 26 of 30 starts. When we adjust his pitch count to 60+ pitches, he is under this in 9 of 10 games on the road, and under in 20 of 23 official starts at 60+. Littell has faced the Braves 5 times in his career, none going over 60+ pitches, but stayed under all 5 games and is currently projected 0.8 walks today.
The Braves are walking 20th lowest rate all season and 14th over the last 15 days vs right-handed pitching. Digging a little deeper, Braves have 6 of 9 batters walking 7.6% or less vs RHP and only 1 batter over 10% (Olson). Littell has great control and I expect the same today!
Live player props data coming soon for Tarik Skubal.
Tarik Skubal Is Up to the Challenge
I love using Skubals Ks as an odds reducer. With these Walks, Outs, Hits Allowed, and ER props I target, the guys who have higher hit rates all have juiced odds unless they have a tough matchup. Litell's odds have been -200ish since last night and one way to bring those down is using ALT lines that have high hit rates.
Skubal has hit 5+ Ks in 21 straight starts dating back to last season, ending on 5 just 1 time in that span. He also has hit 9 Ks at Houston in 2022, and just hit 7 vs them at home this season in early May. This Astros lineup has seen him minimally with 3-10 AB for every player, and 5 of them K at a 30% rate or higher vs Skubal with 2 more sitting around 20+%.
These odds are a little higher than I like for 2-legs, but we do take these odds on 2-legs periodically. I am not comfortable pushing Skubal to 6 or 7 Ks today on the road at Houston, BUT, if you guys want to get a little better odds, I think 6+ Ks is an okay look! If you think he will finish 6 innings, or even make it into the 7th, then he definitely has a great chance to hit 6 or more! Have a great weekend everyone!
My Best Bet:
2-Leg(-120)
Zack Littell (TB) u1.5 Walks
Tarik Skubal (Det) 5+ Ks
