Welcome back baseball fans! We have an incredible MLB slate of games today full of pitching targets and hitters on fire!
We have some early day games, which is always nice to kick off our day! We have 6 games with pretty decent wind speeds, so be careful with some of those wagers today!
Live player props data coming soon for Trevor Rogers.
Can the Blue Jays Drag Rogers into Deep Counts
Look, I am not the biggest fan of taking under Outs props, they have not been the kindest to us this season. Having said that, this is also a matchup where Blue Jays hitters have been coming on as of late, perhaps at the right time to keep his streak going. Vladdy Jr has been on a tear and I cannot wait to see that matchup!
Rogers has been a pretty bad pitcher all season with splits of 17.8% K rate, 4.02 BB/9 rate, allowing .274 avg, and teams are finding the barrel almost 10% against him. On the season Rogers is under this line 18 of 22 starts, and under in 39 of his last 49 starts dating to the 2022 season. Blue Jays ranking 12th in pitches per plate appearance should be a factor as he has a propensity to walk hitters.
This Blue Jays offense led by Vladdy, who by the way hits .338 against Rogers in 88 plate appearances, has been hitting LHP better over the last 15 days. Against LHP, they come in ranking 9th in wRC+, 10th on-base percentage, 13th in walk rate, with a .278 average.
Toronto Bats Are in Great Current Form Against Lefties
Dig a little deeper, over the last 14 days the Blue Jays at home against LHP, rank 6th in avg (.317), 6th OB%, 7th Slugging, and 25th with a 15% K rate. This play is more on an angle of Rogers inability to control his pitches, keeping his pitch count low.
If the Blue Jays can give us any patience, while putting up enough hits and runs, they should be able to chase him before 18. I do expect him to have a walk or two, and with their ability to put their bats on the ball lately, not striking out, that should help foul off pitches to drag deeper counts. Give me the Under!
My Best Bets:
Trevor Rogers (BAL) u17.5 Outs (-135)
