We are back again today looking to cash in on another winner. Unfortunately, Max Fried couldn't muster through the 6th inning last night for us and the freebie fell through.
Let's get that back today with some nice + money action! Best of luck with all of your plays on this Hump Day!
Live player props data coming soon for Logan Webb.
Logan Webb Back Home in Comfort Zone
Logan Webb has been on the road quite a bit this season and has faced some brutal matchups over the past few weeks. Today he gets another tough matchup vs hitters, but gets a great matchup vs Astros who are walking at the 8th lowest rate vs RHP over the last 30 days.
For the entire season they rank 7th worst. This seems to be who they are this season, which makes sense. If you dig a little deeper, Baseball-Reference has the Astros ranked dead last in pitches seen per plate appearance, meaning they are not patient at the plate and want to attack the pitchers.
The Astros do not K a lot and Webb likes to pitch to contact. Webb will probably keep his Ks down and look to get a fair share of ground ball and fly ball outs.
Over his last 3 starts vs the Astros he has been under in 2 of 3 starts, the one over being at Houston. At home this season, he has cashed this under in 4 of 6 games, and has cashed 12 of his last 14, while he is walking batters at a 5.7% rate.
I'd love to see the Astros hit him hard to get him out early. The deeper he goes, the riskier this will get, but I love this look today.
Live player props data coming soon for Bryce Miller.
Bryce Miller Looking to Say Hot Pitching at T-Mobile Park
I'm sort of shocked we are getting 17.5 Outs on Miller today based on his history vs Sox and his work at home this season. We gave this play out last night to our members and was sure to wake up to this bumped up to 18.5.
Perhaps lines are factoring in the "it's tough to sweep a team" angle. Will the Sox come to play today? Not sure the evidence from this season shows that.
Either way, Miller hit 18 outs vs Sox last June, is over in 6 straight home games and has hit 6 of 7 overall, where his only miss was his first start at home. He has hit this in 9/13 overall where 3 of those misses were to Rangers, Orioles, and Royals, all on road, vs very solid hitting teams (Rangers were better back then).
What makes this very appealing as well is the Sox are ranked dead last in almost every offensive category vs RHP for the entire season. They have improved over the last month or so, but still rank bottom 4 in AVG, OBP, OPS, BABIP, and wRC+ vs RHP.
Miller sits with a .200 BAA, 1.02 WHIP, while his K% sits in the 72nd percentile at 24%. There's just too much to like to pass this line up today. Both are heavily juiced, and we like to pair these looks together for some nice + money action!
Our premium members have 5 bets today, let's cash this FREEBIE for everyone today!
Best Bet:
2-Leg (+131)
Logan Webb (SF) u1.5 Walks
Bryce Miller (SEA) o17.5 Outs
