We are back again with a loaded Tuesday MLB slate and coming off a 2/3 night where our members cashed 2 of 3 plus money tickets for some nice profit. We are excited to get back at it today!
We have some intriguing inter-league matchups this week, which I will be keeping an eye on for the pitching matchups. I LOVE interleague because this is a time where batters and pitchers come together that don't normally see each other, which makes for some interesting games!
Why Fried Will Continue His Dominance
Max Fried has been incredible the last few months and, on the road, he has been even better! Fried has gone 21+ outs in four straight road games and has hit 18+ in six of his last seven starts.
On the season he carries a .201 BAA and .102 WHIP, both in the 85th percentile of pitchers, while carrying a very solid 2.93 ERA. Baltimore may have some troubles with Fried as he brings a 6-pitch mix to the table, led by his fastball, while keeping batters guessing, throwing four other pitches 12% or more each.
For today's look he is juiced to the under 2.5 earned run line and slightly juiced to over 5.5 Ks, which tells me he has another good chance to go deep against this potent lineup.
Baltimore has been very good against LHP all season, but over L30 days they are ranked 9th worst in avg vs LHP. Balty sits below league average and bottom 10 in pitches seen per plate appearance, which adds to their low walk totals, because they don't tend to take counts deep.
This line has been fairly juiced all day long, so what I prefer to do is find an ALT line, whether it be a K, BB, or Hit line to bring that juice down to a respectable number. At time of taking this play Fried was right around -160ish.
If you want to take that line as a straight, that is fine. Some days we would do that, others we like to push for a little more value with a data driven ALT play.
Kutter's Cutter Will Be Live Tonight
If you guys do not know who Kutter Crawford is, you haven't been watching one of the more exciting pitchers throw a baseball. He brings a 5-pitch mix, with a heavy dose of 3 pitches, Fastball, Cutter, and Slider, where he throws the Fastball and Cutter about an equal 32% of the time, keeping batters truly guessing what is coming.
Crawford has a very tough matchup today, but one he has cashed all season long! On the season, the Phillies have the 7th lowest K rate vs RHP, but they have yet to face Crawford. Using Kutter's Alt K line at 4+, I was able to bring this line down to a very good number while capturing a line that Cutter has cashed 13/13 times this season for 100%.
Going back to his last 20 starts, he has hit this in 19 of those! His odds project him to at least get into the 6th inning, which should be enough times through the batters to find 4 Ks to help us cash this bet in full!
Today's Best Bet:
2-Leg Parlay (-103 at FanDuel)
Max Fried (ATL) o17.5 Outs
Kutter Crawford (BOS) 4+ Ks
