Two of baseball’s face teams battling for the first pick in the 2024 MLB Draft on Thursday amid an unorthodox schedule this week on the diamond. Tampa Bay hosts Kansas City for a four-game set, while Arizona travels to Washington for a quick make-up game before another flight to San Francisco in an important NL West matchup.
The Rays and Diamondbacks lead their divisions and have won at least 18 of their last 30 games. Compare that to the Royals and Nats, who reside in the cellars of their divisions and have two of the worst three records in baseball. Knowing this sport, some weird things will happen when least expected.
There are eight total matchups on Thursday, beginning with four mid-day games and closing out with the finale in the Bronx between the Mariners and Yankees. We’ve got a four-pack of player props for these matchups on the heels of a 1-2 day yesterday.
Geraldo Perdomo OVER 0.5 Total Bases
The second-year infielder has become an essential cog in Arizona’s on-field success in 2023, slashing .291/.396/.458 in 60 games and posting 2.5 WAR, the 27th-best mark in the bigs.
Perdomo has hit safely in 12 of 17 games in June, posting an on-base percentage of .429 in the month thanks to solid plate discipline that’s also led to 12 walks.
His OPS this season is around 100 points higher when facing right-handed pitching over a much larger sample size, and Washington will start righty Jake Irvin on Thursday afternoon.
Irvin has allowed 24 hits over his last 22.2 innings, and we expect Perdomo to represent at least one of those for the D-Backs today.
Blake Snell OVER 7.0 Strikeouts
Snell has a 0.60 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 30 innings over his last five starts, going 2-0 and allowing 14 hits to opposing hitters. The only concern in this recent impressive stretch is the number of walks he’s issued, up to 13 in that time, including four of five games with 3+ bases on balls.
The Giants have taken three straight from the Padres, but Yu Darvish showed the vulnerability of the lineup in Wednesday’s game when he struck out six of the 26 batters he faced over six innings.
We project Snell to continue his strong form and help San Diego level the season series with their division rival.
Jon Berti UNDER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
Berti is the kind of player who’s as consistent as they come as a fielder, and it’d be nice if he got on base and scored every couple of games to contribute to Miami's offensive output too.
His 0.7 defensive WAR ranks tied for 19th among infielders this season across various positions, whereas his OPS ranks in the 200s among that cohort.
Berti has had fewer than 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBI in 10 of 13 games this month, and we expect him to add to that number against Pittsburgh’s ace Mitch Keller this evening.
Billy McKinney OVER 0.5 Total Bases
The journeyman has become an everyday player for the Yankees since Aaron Judge hit the 10-day IL, hitting five home runs and posting a .992 OPS in 12 games.
He’s hit safely in all but one of his appearances and will have another good chance to do so against Seattle’s Bryan Woo tonight.
Woo has allowed 14 hits and ten runs over 12.1 innings this season in three starts, and we like that matchup for McKinney.
