The climb out of an early hole has been slow and steady since we opened 3-7 betting player props in the first couple weeks of the MLB season. Since then, a 10-4 run brings our tally on the year to 13-11, including another 2-1 result in our last article from May 17.
To continue this progress, we're lining up a pair of articles for the end of this week, starting with the 10-game baseball slate on Thursday. Today's schedule includes storylines such as the Pirates going for a home sweep of the LA Dodgers following Paul Skenes' electrifying first meetings with Dave Roberts' stacked lineup, the Major League debut of Orioles' pitching prospect Cade Povich against the Blue Jays, and the Twins trying to scrape out one win over the Yankees during a three-game series with their ace, Pablo Lopez, on the mound.
Our best bets for the 11+ hours of baseball today are handicapped next. Let's keep the train rolling.
Live player props data coming soon for Ryan Mountcastle.
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Baltimore will look to take Thursday's game for a 3-1 series victory in Toronto after dropping yesterday's matchup when Isiah Kiner-Falefa walked it off in the 9th for the Jays. One player we expect to contribute to the O's effort is Ryan Mountcastle.
The first baseman has owned Blue Jays' starter Yusei Kikuchi in the times they've clashed over the last few years, going 8-for-21 with 4 big flies and 8 RBI while compiling an 1.807 OPS in 25 plate appearances.
Baltimore's right-handed platoon mate at first has done his job this season, which is taking advantage of left-handed pitching. He's lighting up lefties to the tune of a slash line that reads .300/.364/.533 over 66 plate appearances, bolstering his career .854 OPS against southpaws amid another solid campaign.
Further, Kikuchi has been shelled in his last two starts after pitching well for most of May. In losses to the Pirates and Tigers, Kikuchi saw opposing hitters connect for 17 hits during just 8 ⅓ innings, giving up 11 runs with 10 of those earned. We predict Mounty will get the best of Kikuchi again today.
Live player props data coming soon for Juan Soto.
Juan Soto OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Soto has faced Pablo Lopez as a member of the Nationals, Padres, and now Yankees for a total of 38 meetings since 2018. In his typical fashion, Soto has frustrated Lopez with a 21% walk rate, six extra-base hits, including three home runs, and an OPS of 1.207 while limiting his strikeout rate to 13%.
His first few months in pinstripes have gone about as well as anyone could have expected, with the right-fielder neck-and-neck with teammate Aaron Judge in live MVP odds within the American League.
Soto has been dominant regardless of the pitcher he's faced or the ballpark he's played in, posting an OPS greater than 1.000 regardless of right- or left-handed pitching and in both home and away settings.
On the mound, Lopez has been volatile this season. His velocity is down, batters are hitting the ball hard more frequently against him, and he's inducing fewer ground balls than last year. His sinker and changeup have been getting crushed this season, and all of these changes have made Lopez more vulnerable to a hitter like Soto in a park like Yankee Stadium.
All Soto has to do for this prop to cash is connect once in the air or into a gap, and we expect him to do so.
