Welcome to the Friday slate, MLB fans and bettors. There are plenty of intriguing matchups on the board, and lots of folks are fixated on the Cubs vs. the Astros and the Phillies vs. the Braves.
While those will probably turn out to be exciting games, I've found some nice betting value on three different opening totals for June 27. Check out those best bets below. Best of luck, amigos.
Mets vs. Pirates Under 8.5 (-112) (DraftKings)
We've been riding Pirates games to stay Under all year long, and it's paid off quite handsomely. My projections say that this total should be closer to 7.5, especially since both offenses have been struggling. Pittsburgh is just 28th in WRC+ over the last 2 weeks, and surprisingly, the Mets haven't been much better, clocking in at 23rd.
I've been highly impressed with Mets starter David Peterson this season, and I think he should be able to induce this subpar Pirates lineup into lots of double plays. This Pittsburgh roster has an expected batting average of just .236 against Peterson, so I could see them being held to two runs or less.
Mitch Keller is really nothing special, but he's a steady starter who has had a lot of success against this Mets team. New York has an expected wOBA of just .274 against the veteran righty, which doesn't bode well for them busting out of their slump.
Cardinals vs. Guardians Under 8.5 (-120) (FanDuel)
Here's another opening total that I think is at least a run too high. Sonny Gray has been the model of consistency for a decade now, and he should feast against this light-hitting Cleveland team. The Guardians rank just 22nd in WRC+ this season against righties, so look for Gray to cook pretty well with his nasty sweeper in this one.
I've also been pleasantly surprised by the strikeout stuff of Luis Ortiz, who throws much harder than some folks realize. The young righty sometimes struggles with his command, as evidenced by his 11.6% walk rate. Even still, he has the ability to pitch out of jams with his high heater.
Cleveland has struggled on offense for most of the season, and it's clear that they miss Josh Naylor in the worst kind of way. Saint Louis has done well on offense, but they've cooled off a bit here lately. I like Cleveland's sharp bullpen to hold them down if Ortiz doesn't have his best stuff on Friday night.
Mariners vs. Rangers Under 8 (-120) (Caesars)
This is a classic Under spot, with two of the top pitchers in the AL doing battle in Arlington. Logan Gilbert is one of my favorite pitchers to back, and he looks to be fully healthy after dealing with some injuries earlier in the year. The Rangers have an expected batting average of only .204 against Gilbert through 181 career plate appearances.
On the flip side, Nate Eovaldi has been simply outstanding for Texas in 2025. His K-rate is off the charts, mainly thanks to some nasty breaking pitches. Seattle's offense scares me, but I trust Eovaldi to hold them down for at least 5 or 6 innings.
Even with two productive offenses, I still project still 6.86 runs scored in this one after accounting for home / road splits. Look for both starters to dominate and for this one to end up being a 4-3 final.
