Hump Day was not kind to the good guys, as we finished up at 2-3 last night with our MLB player props. It's always tough when 2 of your 3 losses were by the dreaded hook.
As for our loss on Logan Webb's Under 4.5 Ks, let's just say that Houston catcher Victor Caratini won't be getting a Christmas card from us this December! Oh well, it's time to shake it off and bounce back with 3 strikeout props that we love for Thursday! Good luck, my friends!
Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Ks (+126)
I'm personally playing the alternate line on this one to get the plus money, but I'm totally fine if you want to go with the standard 4.5 number at higher juice. Lynn is getting on up there in age, but he still pitches with a bulldog mentality. The 37-year-old no longer has his best stuff, but he has no problem challenging hitters up in the zone with his 92-mph fastball.
The veteran righty also mixes in a cutter and a sinker to keep hitters on their toes. Lynn gets a very favorable matchup today against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have one of the highest K-rates in the league against righties. Five of Pittsburgh's everyday players have strikeout rates above 24%.
Lynn's teammate Sonny Gray just carved up this Pirates lineup for 9 Ks last night to lead St. Louis to a win. Lynn may not get the win today in this early start time outing, but I think he gets at least 6 Ks. Let's take the Over!
Live player props data coming soon for Lance Lynn.
Justin Steele Over 5.5 Ks (-140)
Steele had some bad luck earlier this season in late March when he was injured in a start against the Rangers. The 28-year-old lefty missed the entire month of April but is finally looking more like his old self again. He racked up 7 strikeouts against the Reds on June 7th and I think he could do the same against the Rays tonight.
Steele's K-rate of 22.9% is slightly above average (53rd percentile) and his chase rate is pretty good as well (57th percentile). He should be able to generate some swings and misses against this Tampa Bay squad. The Rays have one of the highest strikeouts in baseball against southpaws, so that bodes well for an Over in this spot.
Tampa Bay has 6 players in their lineup with K-rates of 25% or more. They've been swinging better against lefties lately, but I think that ends tonight against Mr. Steele. Let's ride another Over!
Live player props data coming soon for Justin Steele.
Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 Ks (-130)
We rode Crochet to the promised land last week when he struck out 10 against the Red Sox. To say that this kid has been locked in all year long would be a gross understatement. The 24-year-old lefty has an insanely high K-rate of 34.3% (96th percentile). His whiff rate is also top notch, as it falls into the 86th percentile.
Crochet is 6'6" and he gets a ton of extension when releasing his pitches. That means that his 97-mph fastball looks more like 101 mph to the hitters. Gee, no wonder folks are scared to get into the box against this guy.
We've made a boatload of cash fading this Mariners lineup this season. There's no reason to get off that proverbial horse at the moment, especially against a dominant guy like Crochet. Seattle has 6 everyday players with K-rates over 25%. The Over is the only way to play this one!
Live player props data coming soon for Garrett Crochet.
