The Los Angeles Dodgers roll into Pittsburgh having won five games in a row, riding a 43-25 record that makes them one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Standing in their way Thursday night at PNC Park is a Pittsburgh Pirates squad sitting at 35-33 — not a bad team, but one that will need everything to break right to knock off a Dodgers team that has been steamrolling opponents. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 PM ET, and the pitching matchup alone makes this one of the more interesting games on the Thursday slate.
Justin Wrobleski is the most compelling story in this matchup. The Dodgers left-hander comes in at 7-2 with a 2.62 ERA and an outstanding 1.005 WHIP, establishing himself as one of the better starters in the National League this season. The 25-year-old has been remarkably consistent, giving the Dodgers length and quality every time he takes the hill. On the other side, Mitch Keller enters at 5-3 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.233 WHIP — serviceable, but clearly a tier below what Wrobleski has been doing.
A Market That Likes the Under Despite the Star Power
Los Angeles opened as -160 road favorites and currently sits between -154 and -160 depending on the book, with Pittsburgh getting anywhere from +130 to +135. The run line has the Dodgers at -1.5 with juice near +100 to +104, which is notable — you can get nearly even money to back Los Angeles to win by two or more runs. The over/under is set at 9.5 with the over going at +100 and the under sitting at -122, meaning the market has a clear lean toward the under despite the Dodgers lineup featuring names like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Andy Pages. The under juice makes sense given Wrobleski's profile — he is not a high-strikeout pitcher, but he generates weak contact and keeps the ball in the park, limiting the kinds of big innings that push totals over.
Eighty-six percent of the public is on the Dodgers moneyline, which makes this one of the most lopsided public betting games of the day. The run line at near-even money extracts better value from the market without chasing the crowd on the moneyline. Before you place your bet, our MLB odds page has the latest lines from all the major books in one place.
Can the Pirates Find Cracks Against Wrobleski?
The Pirates are not without weapons. Nick Gonzales has been one of the more consistent top-of-order hitters in Pittsburgh, hitting .304/.354/.379 this season with solid on-base skills leading off. Brandon Lowe provides pop from the second spot at .249 with 15 home runs, and Bryan Reynolds — one of the most reliable outfielders in the National League — comes in at .267/.392/.432 with seven home runs and a .392 OBP that ranks among the best in the lineup. Ryan O'Hearn adds right-handed pop at .285/.357/.478 with 10 home runs out of the four hole.
The problem for Pittsburgh is that Wrobleski has not given anyone easy at-bats this season. His 1.005 WHIP means he is barely averaging one baserunner per inning, and his 7-2 record reflects a pitcher who gives the Dodgers the chance to win virtually every time he takes the ball. Keller, on the other hand, will be asked to navigate a Los Angeles lineup that features Ohtani at .301/.417/.521 with 11 home runs, Andy Pages at .282/.326/.528 with 15 home runs, and a surging Muncy at .269/.358/.517 with 14 long balls. Freddie Freeman is the table-setter at .284/.366/.481 with 10 home runs. That is four lineup spots capable of going deep on any given pitch.
The matchup that matters most is Keller's command versus the Dodgers' ability to barrel up premium velocity. Keller's 4.81 ERA suggests he has been hittable, and against a team that ranks among the best in baseball at making hard contact, the margin for error shrinks considerably. Mookie Betts has been slumping at .190/.259/.365 — well below his career production — but even a below-average Betts contributes on-base value that makes the Dodgers offense work.
Prediction and Best Bet
The Dodgers are the better team by virtually every measure, and Wrobleski is a significant pitching upgrade over Keller. The five-game winning streak suggests this team has found its rhythm, and there is no compelling reason to believe the Pirates have the offensive firepower to consistently attack Wrobleski's contact-management approach. Los Angeles wins this game behind another quality Wrobleski start and a lineup that has too many weapons for Pittsburgh to contain.
- Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 run line (+100 to +104)
The value in this game is on the Dodgers run line. Getting a team of this caliber, backed by a pitcher this sharp, at essentially even money to win by two or more runs against a Pirates squad that ranks well below them in virtually every offensive category is an opportunity worth taking. The public is all over the Dodgers moneyline, so the run line extracts better value while still backing the clear superior team. Lay the run and let Wrobleski go to work.
